Football · Northern Ireland Premier · 21/11, 19:00
Prediction: Larne FC vs Ballymena Utd
Team pages: Larne FC · Ballymena Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Larne FC2.03
Ballymena Utd0.86
1X2
Larne FC
Draw
Ballymena Utd
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Larne FC
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Ballymena Utd
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Larne FC
5–1
Ballymena Utd
(6 last)
- Ballymena Utd0-2Larne FC
- Ballymena Utd1-2Larne FC
- Ballymena Utd2-0Larne FC
- Ballymena Utd0-2Larne FC
- Larne FC2-0Ballymena Utd
- Ballymena Utd1-2Larne FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Larne FC 1547 · Ballymena Utd 1494
| Larne FC | Draw | Ballymena Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Market | 64% | 22% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Larne FC (rating 1547 vs 1494).
- H2H favours Larne FC: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Larne FC | Ballymena Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.3 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 6 | 1.6 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Larne FC 5–0–1 Ballymena Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Northern Ireland Premier | Ballymena Utd | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Larne FC |
| 03/02/26 Northern Ireland Cup | Ballymena Utd | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Larne FC |
| 02/12/25 Northern Ireland League Cup | Ballymena Utd | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Larne FC |
| 01/11/25 Northern Ireland Premier | Ballymena Utd | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Larne FC |
| 29/08/25 Northern Ireland Premier | Larne FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Ballymena Utd |
| 11/03/25 Northern Ireland Premier | Ballymena Utd | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Larne FC |
Standings · Northern Ireland Premier
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linfield | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 11 | 39 |
| 2 | Coleraine | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 16 | 38 |
| 3 | Larne FC | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 14 | 29 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 12 | 25 |
| 5 | Cliftonville | 16 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 28 | 21 | 21 |
| 6 | Carrick Rangers | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 28 | 20 |
| 7 | Crusaders | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 31 | 19 |
| 8 | Dungannon Swifts | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 18 |
| 9 | Limavady United | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 27 | 17 |
| 10 | Ballymena Utd | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 16 |
| 11 | Bangor FC | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 28 | 12 |
| 12 | Portadown | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 28 | 9 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Larne FC | Ballymena Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Dungannon Swifts | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Cliftonville | 2-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Portadown | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Limavady United | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| Bangor FC | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Linfield | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Coleraine | 2-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Crusaders | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Carrick Rangers | 5-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Larne FC (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Larne FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11 | Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 06/11 | Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier |
0-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 30/10 | Portadown Northern Ireland Premier |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 27/10 | Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 24/10 | Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 20/10 | Linfield Northern Ireland Premier |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 16/10 | Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 10/10 | Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 19/09 | Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier |
3-2 | 5-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 15/09 | Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
Ballymena Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11 | Linfield Northern Ireland Premier |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 07/11 | Portadown Northern Ireland Premier |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 31/10 | Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 17/10 | Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 10/10 | Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 03/10 | Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 26/09 | Portadown Northern Ireland Premier |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 15/09 | Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 11/09 | Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Larne FC vs Ballymena Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Larne FC win (64%). Probabilities: Larne FC 64%, draw 22%, Ballymena Utd 14%.
How many goals are expected in Larne FC vs Ballymena Utd?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Larne FC 2.03 · Ballymena Utd 0.86), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Larne FC vs Ballymena Utd?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.