Football · Northern Ireland Premier · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Carrick Rangers vs Coleraine

Team pages: Carrick Rangers · Coleraine

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Carrick Rangers1.25

Coleraine2.11

1X2

21% 23% 56%

Carrick Rangers Draw Coleraine

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Carrick Rangers 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWWDDLDD

Coleraine 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Carrick Rangers 0–2–4 Coleraine (6 last)

Carrick Rangers0-2Coleraine
Carrick Rangers1-1Coleraine
Carrick Rangers1-1Coleraine
Coleraine3-1Carrick Rangers
Coleraine2-1Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers0-1Coleraine

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carrick Rangers 1476 · Coleraine 1588

	Carrick Rangers	Draw	Coleraine
Our model	21%	23%	56%
Market	21%	24%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coleraine (rating 1476 vs 1588).
H2H favours Coleraine: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carrick Rangers	Coleraine
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.1	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.3	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.7	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.80

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.34
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.14 ★
2	1.67 → 1.61▼	Pinn 1.68

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:13 +5’	4.00	3.80	1.67
14:36 +29’	4.33▲	3.80	1.61▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +2’	4.70	4.32	1.61
11:16 +2’	4.34▼	4.14▼	1.68▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Carrick Rangers 0–2–4 Coleraine

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Carrick Rangers	0-2 HT 0-0	Coleraine
14/02/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Carrick Rangers	1-1 HT 1-1	Coleraine
07/02/26 Northern Ireland Cup	Carrick Rangers	1-1 HT 0-1	Coleraine
06/12/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Coleraine	3-1 HT 0-1	Carrick Rangers
27/09/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Coleraine	2-1 HT 1-1	Carrick Rangers
08/02/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Carrick Rangers	0-1 HT 0-0	Coleraine

Standings · Northern Ireland Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Linfield	16	12	3	1	27	11	39
2	Coleraine	16	12	2	2	35	16	38
3	Larne FC	14	9	2	3	27	14	29
4	Glentoran	15	7	4	4	19	12	25
5	Cliftonville	16	7	0	9	28	21	21
6	Carrick Rangers	16	5	5	6	24	28	20
7	Crusaders	16	6	1	9	21	31	19
8	Dungannon Swifts	15	5	3	7	16	23	18
9	Limavady United	16	5	2	9	18	27	17
10	Ballymena Utd	14	4	4	6	18	20	16
11	Bangor FC	16	3	3	10	14	28	12
12	Portadown	16	2	3	11	12	28	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carrick Rangers	Coleraine
Crusaders	1-1 D	5-0 W
Glentoran	0-0 D	1-1 D
Cliftonville	1-7 L	1-0 W
Limavady United	1-1 D	1-0 W
Linfield	2-2 D	0-3 L
Larne FC	2-5 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Coleraine (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carrick Rangers

DLLWWDDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/11	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-1	12	5	D
07/11	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
31/10	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	1-4	1-7	3	2	L
24/10	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
17/10	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	1-2	2-2	4	1	D
10/10	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	3-1	4-2	8	5	W
03/10	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	4-0	8	3	W
26/09	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
19/09	Larne FC Northern Ireland Premier	2-3	2-5	11	4	L
15/09	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	1-1	2	7	D

Coleraine

WWLWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/11	Portadown Northern Ireland Premier	2-0	3-0	14	1	W
07/11	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
30/10	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
24/10	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	3-0	5-0	9	4	W
16/10	Larne FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	3-2	0	6	W
10/10	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
04/10	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	2-1	3-2	4	1	W
25/09	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	1-3	3	5	L
19/09	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
15/09	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	2-1	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carrick Rangers vs Coleraine?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Coleraine win (56%). Probabilities: Carrick Rangers 21%, draw 23%, Coleraine 56%.

How many goals are expected in Carrick Rangers vs Coleraine?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Carrick Rangers 1.25 · Coleraine 2.11), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Carrick Rangers vs Coleraine?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.