Football · Northern Ireland Premier · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Dungannon Swifts vs Crusaders

Team pages: Dungannon Swifts · Crusaders

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Dungannon Swifts2.02

Crusaders0.9

1X2

63% 22% 15%

Dungannon Swifts Draw Crusaders

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dungannon Swifts 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDLDWL

Crusaders 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLLWLD

Head-to-head

Dungannon Swifts 3–3 Crusaders (6 last)

Crusaders3-0Dungannon Swifts
Crusaders2-0Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts2-0Crusaders
Dungannon Swifts0-3Crusaders
Dungannon Swifts1-0Crusaders
Crusaders1-4Dungannon Swifts

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dungannon Swifts 1443 · Crusaders 1462

	Dungannon Swifts	Draw	Crusaders
Our model	62%	23%	15%
Market	63%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dungannon Swifts	Crusaders
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.3	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.20

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.42▼	Pinn 1.44
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.88 ★
2	5.00 → 5.75▲	Pinn 5.94

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:11 +7’	1.48	4.20	5.00
14:55 +11’	1.42▼	4.20	5.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +2’	1.44	4.83	5.92
01:16 +7’	1.44▼	4.88▲	5.94▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dungannon Swifts 3–0–3 Crusaders

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/09/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Crusaders	3-0 HT 0-0	Dungannon Swifts
03/01/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Crusaders	2-0 HT 1-0	Dungannon Swifts
01/11/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Dungannon Swifts	2-0 HT 0-0	Crusaders
13/09/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Dungannon Swifts	0-3 HT 0-2	Crusaders
26/04/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Dungannon Swifts	1-0 HT 0-0	Crusaders
11/01/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Crusaders	1-4 HT 0-2	Dungannon Swifts

Standings · Northern Ireland Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Linfield	16	12	3	1	27	11	39
2	Coleraine	16	12	2	2	35	16	38
3	Larne FC	14	9	2	3	27	14	29
4	Glentoran	15	7	4	4	19	12	25
5	Cliftonville	16	7	0	9	28	21	21
6	Carrick Rangers	16	5	5	6	24	28	20
7	Crusaders	16	6	1	9	21	31	19
8	Dungannon Swifts	15	5	3	7	16	23	18
9	Limavady United	16	5	2	9	18	27	17
10	Ballymena Utd	14	4	4	6	18	20	16
11	Bangor FC	16	3	3	10	14	28	12
12	Portadown	16	2	3	11	12	28	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dungannon Swifts	Crusaders
Larne FC	0-3 L	0-3 L
Limavady United	3-2 W	4-1 W
Linfield	1-1 D	0-1 L
Bangor FC	0-0 D	0-1 L
Carrick Rangers	2-4 L	1-1 D
Ballymena Utd	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Dungannon Swifts (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dungannon Swifts

LLDLLDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/11	Larne FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
07/11	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	3-2	4	3	W
31/10	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
24/10	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	1-3	9	1	L
17/10	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
10/10	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	1-3	2-4	3	5	L
03/10	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
19/09	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
15/09	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-3	5	6	L
12/09	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-1	3	5	L

Crusaders

WLWLLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/11	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
07/11	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-1	11	7	L
31/10	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	4-1	6	6	W
24/10	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-3	0-5	1	4	L
17/10	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
10/10	Larne FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
03/10	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-4	8	3	L
26/09	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
19/09	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
15/09	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	3-0	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dungannon Swifts vs Crusaders?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dungannon Swifts win (63%). Probabilities: Dungannon Swifts 63%, draw 22%, Crusaders 15%.

How many goals are expected in Dungannon Swifts vs Crusaders?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Dungannon Swifts 2.02 · Crusaders 0.9), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Dungannon Swifts vs Crusaders?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.