Football · Northern Ireland Premier · 13/11, 20:45

Prediction: Larne FC vs Dungannon Swifts

Team pages: Larne FC · Dungannon Swifts

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Larne FC2.29

Dungannon Swifts1.17

1X2

61% 21% 17%

Larne FC Draw Dungannon Swifts

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Larne FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLWDWL

Dungannon Swifts 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLLDLDW

Head-to-head

Larne FC 3–1–2 Dungannon Swifts (6 last)

Larne FC8-0Dungannon Swifts
Larne FC2-1Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts1-2Larne FC
Dungannon Swifts2-0Larne FC
Dungannon Swifts1-1Larne FC
Larne FC0-1Dungannon Swifts

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Larne FC 1565 · Dungannon Swifts 1448

	Larne FC	Draw	Dungannon Swifts
Our model	62%	21%	18%
Market	61%	22%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Larne FC (rating 1565 vs 1448).
H2H favours Larne FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Larne FC	Dungannon Swifts
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.7	2.4 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.20

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Pinn 1.51
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.38
2	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.54 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:53 +9’	1.48	4.20	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:59 +3’	1.50	4.54	5.57
16:53 +11’	1.51▲	4.38▼	5.54▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Larne FC 3–1–2 Dungannon Swifts

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Larne FC	8-0 HT 3-0	Dungannon Swifts
13/03/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Larne FC	2-1 HT 2-0	Dungannon Swifts
29/11/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Dungannon Swifts	1-2 HT 1-1	Larne FC
04/10/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Dungannon Swifts	2-0 HT 2-0	Larne FC
01/04/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Dungannon Swifts	1-1 HT 1-1	Larne FC
22/02/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Larne FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Dungannon Swifts

Standings · Northern Ireland Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Linfield	15	11	3	1	24	11	36
2	Coleraine	15	11	2	2	32	16	35
3	Larne FC	13	8	2	3	24	14	26
4	Glentoran	14	6	4	4	17	11	22
5	Cliftonville	15	7	0	8	27	19	21
6	Carrick Rangers	15	5	4	6	23	27	19
7	Dungannon Swifts	14	5	3	6	16	20	18
8	Crusaders	15	6	0	9	20	30	18
9	Ballymena Utd	13	4	4	5	18	17	16
10	Limavady United	15	4	2	9	16	26	14
11	Bangor FC	15	3	3	9	13	26	12
12	Portadown	15	2	3	10	12	25	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Larne FC	Dungannon Swifts
Cliftonville	2-4 L	1-3 L
Limavady United	1-1 D	3-2 W
Bangor FC	2-1 W	0-0 D
Linfield	1-2 L	1-1 D
Crusaders	3-0 W	0-3 L
Carrick Rangers	5-2 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Larne FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Larne FC

WWWWLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	2-4	6	2	L
30/10	Portadown Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
27/10	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
24/10	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	2-1	6	1	W
20/10	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
16/10	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-3	3	6	L
10/10	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
19/09	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	3-2	5-2	4	4	W
15/09	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
12/09	Portadown Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-0	3	3	W

Dungannon Swifts

WLLDLLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	3-2	4	3	W
31/10	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
24/10	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	1-3	9	1	L
17/10	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
10/10	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	1-3	2-4	3	5	L
03/10	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
19/09	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
15/09	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-3	5	6	L
12/09	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
05/09	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-0	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Larne FC vs Dungannon Swifts?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Larne FC win (61%). Probabilities: Larne FC 61%, draw 21%, Dungannon Swifts 17%.

How many goals are expected in Larne FC vs Dungannon Swifts?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Larne FC 2.29 · Dungannon Swifts 1.17), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Larne FC vs Dungannon Swifts?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.