Football · Northern Ireland Premier · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Bangor FC vs Ballymena Utd

Team pages: Bangor FC · Ballymena Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Bangor FC1.16

Ballymena Utd1.85

1X2

23% 25% 53%

Bangor FC Draw Ballymena Utd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Bangor FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LWDDDLLLLL

Ballymena Utd 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDDWDLLWLL

Head-to-head

Bangor FC 1–2–3 Ballymena Utd (6 last)

Ballymena Utd0-0Bangor FC
Bangor FC2-0Ballymena Utd
Bangor FC2-3Ballymena Utd
Ballymena Utd4-0Bangor FC
Ballymena Utd1-1Bangor FC
Bangor FC1-2Ballymena Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bangor FC 1449 · Ballymena Utd 1527

	Bangor FC	Draw	Ballymena Utd
Our model	23%	25%	52%
Market	23%	24%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ballymena Utd (rating 1449 vs 1527).
H2H favours Ballymena Utd: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bangor FC	Ballymena Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 2.1	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.6 / 2	1.9 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.70

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.90▲	Pinn 4.07
X	3.50 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.80
2	1.91 → 1.70▼	Pinn 1.78 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:07 +10’	3.30	3.50	1.91
18:04 +20’	3.90▲	3.70▲	1.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:05 +13’	4.07	3.80	1.78

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bangor FC 1–2–3 Ballymena Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/04/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Ballymena Utd	0-0 HT 0-0	Bangor FC
30/12/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Bangor FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Ballymena Utd
08/11/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Bangor FC	2-3 HT 0-1	Ballymena Utd
23/08/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Ballymena Utd	4-0 HT 2-0	Bangor FC
20/07/24 UK Friendlies	Ballymena Utd	1-1 HT 1-0	Bangor FC
18/07/15 Club Friendly List	Bangor FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Ballymena Utd

Standings · Northern Ireland Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Coleraine	4	3	1	0	8	1	10
2	Carrick Rangers	4	3	0	1	7	3	9
3	Dungannon Swifts	4	3	0	1	6	3	9
4	Crusaders	4	3	0	1	8	6	9
5	Linfield	4	3	0	1	5	4	9
6	Glentoran	4	2	0	2	6	4	6
7	Cliftonville	4	2	0	2	5	4	6
8	Ballymena Utd	3	1	0	2	4	4	3
9	Larne FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	Limavady United	3	0	0	3	1	6	0
11	Portadown	4	0	0	4	2	8	0
12	Bangor FC	3	0	0	3	0	9	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bangor FC	Ballymena Utd
Carrick Rangers	0-4 L	3-2 W
Cliftonville	0-3 L	2-2 D
Portadown	2-4 L	1-2 L
Glenavon	0-0 D	1-1 D
Crusaders	1-1 D	1-2 L
Glentoran	0-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ballymena Utd (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bangor FC

LWDDDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
22/08	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
15/08	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	0-3	1	3	L
25/04	Portadown Northern Ireland Premier	1-2	2-4	1	0	L
18/04	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	0-3	2	0	L
15/04	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
11/04	Glenavon Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
07/04	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	1-1	0	2	D
21/03	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
10/03	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	0-4	3	2	L

Ballymena Utd

WDDWDLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
15/08	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	1-2	1-2	7	4	L
08/08	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
25/04	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	1-3	2-3	8	5	L
18/04	Portadown Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
15/04	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
11/04	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
07/04	Glenavon Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
21/03	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	2-2	8	1	D
14/03	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	2-1	5	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bangor FC vs Ballymena Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ballymena Utd win (53%). Probabilities: Bangor FC 23%, draw 25%, Ballymena Utd 53%.

How many goals are expected in Bangor FC vs Ballymena Utd?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Bangor FC 1.16 · Ballymena Utd 1.85), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bangor FC vs Ballymena Utd?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.