Football · Northern Ireland Premier · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Portadown vs Larne FC

Team pages: Portadown · Larne FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Portadown0.69

Larne FC2.21

1X2

10% 19% 72%

Portadown Draw Larne FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Portadown 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DDLWWLLLLL

Larne FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWDWDW

Head-to-head

Portadown 2–1–3 Larne FC (6 last)

Portadown2-1Larne FC
Larne FC3-0Portadown
Larne FC4-0Portadown
Larne FC3-0Portadown
Portadown2-0Larne FC
Larne FC1-1Portadown

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portadown 1472 · Larne FC 1553

	Portadown	Draw	Larne FC
Our model	9%	19%	71%
Market	10%	18%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Larne FC (rating 1472 vs 1553).
H2H favours Larne FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portadown	Larne FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	2.2 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	1.1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

19.00

X5.00

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)2.00

2 (-1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:17 +5’	9.00	5.00	1.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portadown 2–1–3 Larne FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Portadown	2-1 HT 2-1	Larne FC
07/11/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Larne FC	3-0 HT 0-0	Portadown
22/08/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Larne FC	4-0 HT 2-0	Portadown
01/07/25 UK Friendlies	Larne FC	3-0 HT 0-0	Portadown
15/02/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Portadown	2-0 HT 2-0	Larne FC
01/02/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Larne FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Portadown

Standings · Northern Ireland Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Coleraine	5	4	1	0	12	2	13
2	Dungannon Swifts	5	4	0	1	8	3	12
3	Linfield	5	4	0	1	6	4	12
4	Cliftonville	5	3	0	2	8	5	9
5	Carrick Rangers	5	3	0	2	7	4	9
6	Crusaders	5	3	0	2	9	10	9
7	Glentoran	5	2	0	3	7	6	6
8	Larne FC	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
9	Ballymena Utd	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
10	Bangor FC	4	0	1	3	2	11	1
11	Limavady United	4	0	0	4	1	8	0
12	Portadown	5	0	0	5	3	11	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portadown	Larne FC
Cliftonville	1-3 L	2-0 W
Coleraine	0-3 L	0-0 D
Dungannon Swifts	0-1 L	8-0 W
Ballymena Utd	2-1 W	2-0 W
Glenavon	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Larne FC (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portadown

DDLWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	1-3	7	4	L
28/08	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
22/08	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	2-3	3	3	L
15/08	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
08/08	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
25/04	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	2-1	4-2	4	0	W
18/04	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
11/04	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	0-3	0-4	5	3	L
07/04	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
04/04	Glenavon Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	1-1	2	9	D

Larne FC

WWWWLWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
15/08	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
25/04	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	3-0	8-0	5	2	W
17/04	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
11/04	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
07/04	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	1-1	1-4	2	3	L
28/03	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-0	7	0	W
20/03	Glenavon Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	3-0	2	1	W
13/03	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	2-0	2-1	2	0	W
28/02	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	2-0	2-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portadown vs Larne FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Larne FC win (72%). Probabilities: Portadown 10%, draw 19%, Larne FC 72%.

How many goals are expected in Portadown vs Larne FC?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Portadown 0.69 · Larne FC 2.21), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Portadown vs Larne FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.