Football · Northern Ireland Premier · 05/09, 16:00
Prediction: Linfield vs Carrick Rangers
Team pages: Linfield · Carrick Rangers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.9Total
Linfield1.8
Carrick Rangers1.09
1X2
Linfield
Draw
Carrick Rangers
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Linfield
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Carrick Rangers
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Linfield
4–1–1
Carrick Rangers
(6 last)
- Carrick Rangers2-0Linfield
- Carrick Rangers0-0Linfield
- Linfield3-1Carrick Rangers
- Linfield3-0Carrick Rangers
- Carrick Rangers1-3Linfield
- Linfield1-0Carrick Rangers
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Linfield 1479 · Carrick Rangers 1559
| Linfield | Draw | Carrick Rangers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carrick Rangers (rating 1479 vs 1559).
- H2H favours Linfield: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Linfield | Carrick Rangers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 2.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.3 | 2.3 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Linfield 4–1–1 Carrick Rangers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 Northern Ireland Premier | Carrick Rangers | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Linfield |
| 13/01/26 Northern Ireland Premier | Carrick Rangers | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Linfield |
| 29/11/25 Northern Ireland Premier | Linfield | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Carrick Rangers |
| 11/01/25 Northern Ireland Premier | Linfield | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Carrick Rangers |
| 03/11/24 Northern Ireland Premier | Carrick Rangers | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Linfield |
| 21/09/24 Northern Ireland Premier | Linfield | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Carrick Rangers |
Standings · Northern Ireland Premier
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Carrick Rangers | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Dungannon Swifts | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Crusaders | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Linfield | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Glentoran | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Cliftonville | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Ballymena Utd | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 9 | Larne FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 | Portadown | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 | Bangor FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Linfield | Carrick Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Limavady United | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Ballymena Utd | 0-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Dungannon Swifts | 3-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Coleraine | 0-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Linfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 08/08 | Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 12/05 | Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 11/04 | Larne FC Northern Ireland Premier |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 07/04 | Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 28/03 | Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
Carrick Rangers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 08/08 | Portadown Northern Ireland Premier |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 06/05 | Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Glenavon Northern Ireland Premier |
0-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 11/04 | Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier |
1-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 07/04 | Portadown Northern Ireland Premier |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 28/03 | Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier |
2-1 | 6-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Linfield vs Carrick Rangers?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Linfield win (53%). Probabilities: Linfield 53%, draw 25%, Carrick Rangers 22%.
How many goals are expected in Linfield vs Carrick Rangers?
The model expects 2.9 goals (Linfield 1.8 · Carrick Rangers 1.09), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Linfield vs Carrick Rangers?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.