Football · Northern Ireland Premier · 23/10, 20:45

Prediction: Portadown vs Linfield

Team pages: Portadown · Linfield

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Portadown0.81

Linfield1.82

1X2

16% 23% 61%

Portadown Draw Linfield

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Portadown 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLLWDW

Linfield 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Portadown 1–1–4 Linfield (6 last)

Portadown1-1Linfield
Linfield3-1Portadown
Portadown2-0Linfield
Linfield3-0Portadown
Portadown1-3Linfield
Linfield2-1Portadown

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portadown 1451 · Linfield 1577

	Portadown	Draw	Linfield
Our model	15%	25%	60%
Market	16%	22%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Linfield (rating 1451 vs 1577).
H2H favours Linfield: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portadown	Linfield
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	1.6 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4	2.8 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.5	3.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.00

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.02

2 (-1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:06 +3’	5.50	4.00	1.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Portadown 1–1–4 Linfield

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/09/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Portadown	1-1 HT 0-1	Linfield
10/03/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Linfield	3-1 HT 1-1	Portadown
17/10/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Portadown	2-0 HT 0-0	Linfield
06/09/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Linfield	3-0 HT 0-0	Portadown
18/01/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Portadown	1-3 HT 0-3	Linfield
30/11/24 Northern Ireland Premier	Linfield	2-1 HT 0-0	Portadown

Standings · Northern Ireland Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Coleraine	12	10	1	1	26	12	31
2	Linfield	11	8	2	1	16	8	26
3	Glentoran	12	6	2	4	16	10	20
4	Larne FC	8	6	1	1	17	6	19
5	Carrick Rangers	12	5	2	5	21	19	17
6	Ballymena Utd	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
7	Crusaders	12	5	0	7	16	23	15
8	Dungannon Swifts	11	4	2	5	11	14	14
9	Cliftonville	12	4	0	8	13	15	12
10	Limavady United	11	4	0	7	11	17	12
11	Portadown	12	2	2	8	10	21	8
12	Bangor FC	12	1	3	8	10	24	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portadown	Linfield
Cliftonville	2-1 W	1-0 W
Glentoran	0-0 D	2-1 W
Limavady United	3-1 W	2-0 W
Bangor FC	1-3 L	2-0 W
Coleraine	0-3 L	3-1 W
Crusaders	2-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	6 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Linfield (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portadown

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
09/10	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
03/10	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	1-1	3-1	5	7	W
26/09	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
19/09	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-3	1	5	L
15/09	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
12/09	Larne FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
05/09	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	1-3	7	4	L
28/08	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
22/08	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	2-3	3	3	L

Linfield

WWWWWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	2-1	2-2	9	1	D
10/10	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/09	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
19/09	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
15/09	Portadown Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
12/09	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
05/09	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
29/08	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
21/08	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
15/08	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-1	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portadown vs Linfield?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Linfield win (61%). Probabilities: Portadown 16%, draw 23%, Linfield 61%.

How many goals are expected in Portadown vs Linfield?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Portadown 0.81 · Linfield 1.82), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Portadown vs Linfield?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.