Football · Northern Ireland Premier · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Glentoran vs Crusaders

Team pages: Glentoran · Crusaders

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.54Total

Glentoran2.66

Crusaders0.87

1X2

75% 16% 9%

Glentoran Draw Crusaders

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Glentoran 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWWDLWLW

Crusaders 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Glentoran 5–1 Crusaders (6 last)

Glentoran5-1Crusaders
Glentoran2-1Crusaders
Crusaders2-3Glentoran
Crusaders0-2Glentoran
Crusaders0-4Glentoran
Glentoran0-1Crusaders

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Glentoran 1535 · Crusaders 1525

	Glentoran	Draw	Crusaders
Our model	75%	16%	9%
Market	75%	16%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Glentoran: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Glentoran	Crusaders
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.6	2.9 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.20

X5.75

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.80

2 (+1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Pinn 1.21
X	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 6.79 ★
2	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:37 +5’	1.20	5.75	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:47 +2’	1.21	6.79	9.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Glentoran 5–0–1 Crusaders

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Glentoran	5-1 HT 1-0	Crusaders
04/11/25 Northern Ireland League Cup	Glentoran	2-1 HT 2-0	Crusaders
25/10/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Crusaders	2-3 HT 0-1	Glentoran
23/08/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Crusaders	0-2 HT 0-2	Glentoran
12/04/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Crusaders	0-4 HT 0-2	Glentoran
22/03/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Glentoran	0-1 HT 0-0	Crusaders

Standings · Northern Ireland Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Coleraine	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
2	Cliftonville	3	2	0	1	5	2	6
2	Glentoran	3	2	0	1	5	2	6
4	Crusaders	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
5	Dungannon Swifts	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
6	Carrick Rangers	3	2	0	1	3	3	6
7	Linfield	3	2	0	1	3	4	6
8	Ballymena Utd	3	1	0	2	4	4	3
9	Larne FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	Portadown	3	0	0	3	2	5	0
11	Limavady United	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
12	Bangor FC	2	0	0	2	0	5	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Glentoran	Crusaders
Ballymena Utd	2-0 W	2-1 W
Cliftonville	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Glentoran (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Glentoran

WDDWWDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	2-0	9	4	W
15/08	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-2	1	7	L
08/08	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
25/04	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	2-6	2	0	L
17/04	Larne FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
11/04	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	3-0	5-0	9	3	W
07/04	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	2-0	2-1	3	4	W
28/03	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
21/03	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-1	8	1	D
18/03	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	3-0	3	1	W

Crusaders

LDLDWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Portadown Northern Ireland Premier	2-0	3-2	3	3	W
15/08	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
07/08	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-2	0	1	L
25/04	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	3-1	3-2	2	5	W
18/04	Glenavon Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	1-0	4	9	W
11/04	Portadown Northern Ireland Premier	3-0	4-0	11	3	W
07/04	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
28/03	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	1-2	1-6	5	5	L
21/03	Portadown Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
14/03	Glenavon Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-3	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Glentoran vs Crusaders?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Glentoran win (75%). Probabilities: Glentoran 75%, draw 16%, Crusaders 9%.

How many goals are expected in Glentoran vs Crusaders?

The model expects 3.54 goals (Glentoran 2.66 · Crusaders 0.87), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Glentoran vs Crusaders?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.