Football · Northern Ireland Premier · 04/09, 20:45

Prediction: Larne FC vs Glentoran

Team pages: Larne FC · Glentoran

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Larne FC1.45

Glentoran1.35

1X2

38% 28% 34%

Larne FC Draw Glentoran

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Larne FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLWDWD

Glentoran 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWDLWLWL

Head-to-head

Larne FC 2–4–0 Glentoran (6 last)

Glentoran0-0Larne FC
Glentoran1-1Larne FC
Larne FC2-2Glentoran
Glentoran1-4Larne FC
Larne FC1-0Glentoran
Larne FC0-0Glentoran

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Larne FC 1556 · Glentoran 1482

	Larne FC	Draw	Glentoran
Our model	38%	28%	34%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Larne FC (rating 1556 vs 1482).
H2H favours Larne FC: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Larne FC	Glentoran
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.6	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.1	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.8	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.38▲	Pinn 2.45
X	3.20 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.42 ★
2	3.00 → 2.70▼	Pinn 2.74

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:29 +7’	2.15	3.20	3.00
17:48 +12’	2.38▲	3.10▼	2.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:23 +10’	2.43	3.38	2.71
22:27 +1’	2.45▲	3.42▲	2.74▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Larne FC 2–4–0 Glentoran

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Glentoran	0-0 HT 0-0	Larne FC
06/03/26 Northern Ireland Cup	Glentoran	1-1 HT 1-0	Larne FC
10/02/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Larne FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Glentoran
13/01/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Glentoran	1-4 HT 1-2	Larne FC
12/12/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Larne FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Glentoran
26/04/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Larne FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Glentoran

Standings · Northern Ireland Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Coleraine	4	3	1	0	8	1	10
2	Carrick Rangers	4	3	0	1	7	3	9
3	Dungannon Swifts	4	3	0	1	6	3	9
4	Crusaders	4	3	0	1	8	6	9
5	Linfield	4	3	0	1	5	4	9
6	Glentoran	4	2	0	2	6	4	6
7	Cliftonville	4	2	0	2	5	4	6
8	Ballymena Utd	3	1	0	2	4	4	3
9	Larne FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	Limavady United	3	0	0	3	1	6	0
11	Portadown	4	0	0	4	2	8	0
12	Bangor FC	3	0	0	3	0	9	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Larne FC	Glentoran
Coleraine	0-0 D	2-6 L
Dungannon Swifts	8-0 W	5-0 W
Linfield	2-0 W	1-2 L
Cliftonville	2-0 W	2-1 W
Ballymena Utd	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Larne FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Larne FC

DWWWWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
25/04	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	3-0	8-0	5	2	W
17/04	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
11/04	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
07/04	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	1-1	1-4	2	3	L
28/03	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-0	7	0	W
20/03	Glenavon Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	3-0	2	1	W
13/03	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	2-0	2-1	2	0	W
28/02	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
24/02	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	1-1	4	5	D

Glentoran

DDWWDLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
21/08	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	2-0	9	4	W
15/08	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-2	1	7	L
08/08	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
25/04	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	2-6	2	0	L
17/04	Larne FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
11/04	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	3-0	5-0	9	3	W
07/04	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	2-0	2-1	3	4	W
28/03	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
21/03	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-1	8	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Larne FC vs Glentoran?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Larne FC win (38%). Probabilities: Larne FC 38%, draw 28%, Glentoran 34%.

How many goals are expected in Larne FC vs Glentoran?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Larne FC 1.45 · Glentoran 1.35), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Larne FC vs Glentoran?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.