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Football · Belgium First Division A · 25/10, 19:15

Prediction: Union Saint Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge

Team pages: Union Saint Gilloise · Cercle Brugge

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.51Total
Union Saint Gilloise2.54
Cercle Brugge0.97
1X2
70% 18% 12%
Union Saint Gilloise Draw Cercle Brugge
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Union Saint Gilloise 7-3-0 (W-D-L)
DWWDWWWWWD
Cercle Brugge 0-3-7 (W-D-L)
LLDDLLLDLL
Head-to-head
Union Saint Gilloise 2–2–2 Cercle Brugge (6 last)
  • Cercle Brugge1-1Union Saint Gilloise
  • Union Saint Gilloise2-0Cercle Brugge
  • Cercle Brugge0-0Union Saint Gilloise
  • Union Saint Gilloise1-3Cercle Brugge
  • Cercle Brugge1-2Union Saint Gilloise
  • Union Saint Gilloise2-3Cercle Brugge
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Saint Gilloise 1634 · Cercle Brugge 1432
Union Saint GilloiseDrawCercle Brugge
Our model70%18%12%
Market70%18%11%
Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Saint Gilloise (rating 1634 vs 1432).
  • High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Union Saint GilloiseCercle Brugge
Goals for / against (FT)2.7 / 0.51.2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)1.2 / 0.40.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)40/50/10%30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)2.3 / 5.73.5 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.6 / 0.32.7 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Saint Gilloise 2–2–2 Cercle Brugge

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DateHomeScoreAway
26/12/25
Belgium First Division A
Cercle Brugge1-1
HT 1-1
Union Saint Gilloise
22/11/25
Belgium First Division A
Union Saint Gilloise2-0
HT 1-0
Cercle Brugge
08/12/24
Belgium First Division A
Cercle Brugge0-0
HT 0-0
Union Saint Gilloise
27/10/24
Belgium First Division A
Union Saint Gilloise1-3
HT 1-0
Cercle Brugge
19/05/24
Belgium First Division A
Cercle Brugge1-2
HT 1-1
Union Saint Gilloise
07/04/24
Belgium First Division A
Union Saint Gilloise2-3
HT 1-2
Cercle Brugge

Standings · Belgium First Division A

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Gent 8710 15422
2 Club Brugge 8701 19421
3 Charleroi 8701 16721
4 Union Saint Gilloise 8620 22420
5 Anderlecht 8512 9616
6 Westerlo 8413 201713
7 Genk 8332 161212
8 Zulte-Waregem 8323 10911
9 Standard Liege 8323 131311
10 Lommel 8323 9911
11 SK Beveren 8305 8149
12 Sint-Truidense 8224 15168
13 Antwerp 8215 12207
14 KV Mechelen 8134 9176
15 OH Leuven 8125 6145
16 RAAL La Louviere 8116 8184
17 KV Kortrijk 8107 2183
18 Cercle Brugge 8035 9163

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentUnion Saint GilloiseCercle Brugge
OH Leuven 1-1 D 1-1 D
Lommel 5-0 W 0-1 L
Charleroi 3-2 W 2-3 L
Sint-Truidense 3-0 W 3-3 D
Anderlecht 3-0 W 1-2 L
Zulte-Waregem 0-0 D 2-3 L
Gent 0-0 D 0-3 L
Record vs common 4 W 3 D 0 L 0 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Union Saint Gilloise (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Saint Gilloise

DWWDWWWWWD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
11/10 OH Leuven
Belgium First Division A
 0-1 1-1 94 D
20/09 Antwerp
Belgium First Division A
 0-0 2-0 77 W
12/09 Lommel
Belgium First Division A
 2-0 5-0 62 W
05/09 Charleroi
Belgium First Division A
 2-2 3-2 73 W
02/09 Sint-Truidense
Belgium First Division A
 1-0 3-0 15 W
30/08 Anderlecht
Belgium First Division A
 2-0 3-0 44 W
15/08 Zulte-Waregem
Belgium First Division A
 0-0 0-0 92 D
08/08 Westerlo
Belgium First Division A
 1-1 5-1 53 W
24/05 Anderlecht
Belgium First Division A
 4-0 5-1 45 W
21/05 Gent
Belgium First Division A
 0-0 0-0 54 D

Cercle Brugge

LLDDLLLDLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
10/10 Anderlecht
Belgium First Division A
 1-0 1-2 53 L
19/09 Charleroi
Belgium First Division A
 1-2 2-3 22 L
12/09 OH Leuven
Belgium First Division A
 0-1 1-1 116 D
06/09 Gent
Belgium First Division A
 0-1 0-3 81 L
29/08 Lommel
Belgium First Division A
 0-0 0-1 95 L
23/08 Club Brugge
Belgium First Division A
 0-1 0-1 41 L
14/08 Sint-Truidense
Belgium First Division A
 1-2 3-3 103 D
08/08 Standard Liege
Belgium First Division A
 1-1 2-2 112 D
09/05 RAAL La Louviere
Belgium First Division A
 1-0 1-4 53 L
01/05 Zulte-Waregem
Belgium First Division A
 1-0 2-3 61 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Saint Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Saint Gilloise win (70%). Probabilities: Union Saint Gilloise 70%, draw 18%, Cercle Brugge 12%.

How many goals are expected in Union Saint Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Union Saint Gilloise 2.54 · Cercle Brugge 0.97), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Saint Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.