Football · Belgium First Division A · 01/11, 16:00

Prediction: Sint-Truidense vs OH Leuven

Team pages: Sint-Truidense · OH Leuven

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Sint-Truidense1.97

OH Leuven1.06

1X2

58% 23% 19%

Sint-Truidense Draw OH Leuven

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Sint-Truidense 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDDWLWLLLL

OH Leuven 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLDWDD

Head-to-head

Sint-Truidense 3–1–2 OH Leuven (6 last)

Sint-Truidense1-0OH Leuven
OH Leuven1-2Sint-Truidense
OH Leuven3-2Sint-Truidense
Sint-Truidense2-1OH Leuven
Sint-Truidense1-1OH Leuven
OH Leuven1-0Sint-Truidense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sint-Truidense 1535 · OH Leuven 1441

	Sint-Truidense	Draw	OH Leuven
Our model	57%	24%	19%
Market	58%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sint-Truidense (rating 1535 vs 1441).
H2H favours Sint-Truidense: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sint-Truidense	OH Leuven
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.9	0.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.9	2.2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.20

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.65
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.85 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
07:56 +21’	1.61	4.20	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:21 +180’	1.61	4.24	5.00
18:22 +6’	1.61▼	4.27▲	5.01▲
13:07 +26’	1.63▲	4.23▼	4.91▼
17:29 +4’	1.65▲	4.16▼	4.85▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sint-Truidense 3–1–2 OH Leuven

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Belgium First Division A	Sint-Truidense	1-0 HT 1-0	OH Leuven
23/11/25 Belgium First Division A	OH Leuven	1-2 HT 1-2	Sint-Truidense
16/03/25 Belgium First Division A	OH Leuven	3-2 HT 1-1	Sint-Truidense
15/09/24 Belgium First Division A	Sint-Truidense	2-1 HT 1-0	OH Leuven
17/05/24 Belgium First Division A	Sint-Truidense	1-1 HT 0-0	OH Leuven
20/04/24 Belgium First Division A	OH Leuven	1-0 HT 0-0	Sint-Truidense

Standings · Belgium First Division A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gent	9	8	1	0	19	4	25
2	Club Brugge	9	8	0	1	22	6	24
3	Union Saint Gilloise	9	7	2	0	27	6	23
4	Charleroi	9	7	0	2	16	10	21
5	Anderlecht	9	5	1	3	9	10	16
6	Genk	9	4	3	2	18	13	15
7	Westerlo	9	4	2	3	24	21	14
8	Lommel	9	3	3	3	11	11	12
9	Standard Liege	9	3	2	4	14	15	11
10	Zulte-Waregem	9	3	2	4	10	12	11
11	Antwerp	9	3	1	5	15	20	10
12	SK Beveren	9	3	1	5	12	18	10
13	Sint-Truidense	9	2	2	5	17	19	8
14	RAAL La Louviere	9	2	1	6	11	18	7
15	KV Mechelen	8	1	3	4	9	17	6
16	OH Leuven	9	1	3	5	8	16	6
17	KV Kortrijk	8	1	0	7	2	18	3
18	Cercle Brugge	9	0	3	6	11	21	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sint-Truidense	OH Leuven
Club Brugge	2-3 L	0-3 L
SK Beveren	0-2 L	0-3 L
RAAL La Louviere	4-0 W	2-0 W
Union Saint Gilloise	0-3 L	1-1 D
Cercle Brugge	3-3 D	1-1 D
Lommel	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sint-Truidense (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sint-Truidense

WDDWLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-2	2-3	4	2	L
11/10	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	1-3	3-4	8	6	L
20/09	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
12/09	SK Beveren Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
05/09	RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A	1-0	4-0	12	3	W
02/09	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
30/08	Antwerp Belgium First Division A	1-0	4-1	1	4	W
14/08	Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A	2-1	3-3	3	3	D
08/08	Lommel Belgium First Division A	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
24/05	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	2-0	3-0	2	4	W

OH Leuven

LLLLLLDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Lommel Belgium First Division A	0-1	2-2	7	4	D
11/10	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
19/09	RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
12/09	Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
06/09	SK Beveren Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-3	5	4	L
03/09	Gent Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
29/08	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
15/08	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
09/08	Charleroi Belgium First Division A	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
23/05	Genk Belgium First Division A	0-2	0-2	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sint-Truidense vs OH Leuven?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sint-Truidense win (58%). Probabilities: Sint-Truidense 58%, draw 23%, OH Leuven 19%.

How many goals are expected in Sint-Truidense vs OH Leuven?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Sint-Truidense 1.97 · OH Leuven 1.06), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sint-Truidense vs OH Leuven?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.