Football · Belgium First Division A · 31/10, 16:00
Prediction: KV Mechelen vs Genk
Team pages: KV Mechelen · Genk
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.12Total
KV Mechelen1.26
Genk1.86
1X2
KV Mechelen
Draw
Genk
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
KV Mechelen
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Genk
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
KV Mechelen
1–1–4
Genk
(6 last)
- KV Mechelen2-3Genk
- Genk0-1KV Mechelen
- KV Mechelen1-2Genk
- Genk2-1KV Mechelen
- KV Mechelen1-1Genk
- Genk4-0KV Mechelen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · KV Mechelen 1453 · Genk 1530
| KV Mechelen | Draw | Genk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Market | 25% | 25% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Genk (rating 1453 vs 1530).
- H2H favours Genk: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| KV Mechelen | Genk | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.2 | 1.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.4 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/10/80% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.2 | 2.1 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · KV Mechelen 1–1–4 Genk
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/26 Belgium First Division A | KV Mechelen | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Genk |
| 23/11/25 Belgium First Division A | Genk | 0-1 HT 0-1 | KV Mechelen |
| 18/01/25 Belgium First Division A | KV Mechelen | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Genk |
| 28/09/24 Belgium First Division A | Genk | 2-1 HT 0-0 | KV Mechelen |
| 11/02/24 Belgium First Division A | KV Mechelen | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Genk |
| 22/10/23 Belgium First Division A | Genk | 4-0 HT 2-0 | KV Mechelen |
Standings · Belgium First Division A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 25 |
| 2 | Club Brugge | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 24 |
| 3 | Union Saint Gilloise | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | Charleroi | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 21 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 16 |
| 6 | Genk | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 15 |
| 7 | Westerlo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 21 | 14 |
| 8 | Lommel | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 11 |
| 10 | Zulte-Waregem | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| 11 | Antwerp | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 10 |
| 12 | SK Beveren | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 10 |
| 13 | Sint-Truidense | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 8 |
| 14 | RAAL La Louviere | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 7 |
| 15 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 6 |
| 16 | OH Leuven | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 6 |
| 17 | KV Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Westerlo | 0-4 L | 3-2 W |
| Standard Liege | 3-3 D | 2-1 W |
| Gent | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Club Brugge | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Genk (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
KV Mechelen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A |
3-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 19/09 | Lommel Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 11/09 | Anderlecht Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Westerlo Belgium First Division A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Charleroi Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 16/08 | Standard Liege Belgium First Division A |
1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Gent Belgium First Division A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Club Brugge Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
Genk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Standard Liege Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | KV Kortrijk Belgium First Division A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Club Brugge Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | Gent Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | Anderlecht Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 28/08 | SK Beveren Belgium First Division A |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Antwerp Belgium First Division A |
1-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 15/08 | Westerlo Belgium First Division A |
2-2 | 3-2 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 09/08 | Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Gent Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in KV Mechelen vs Genk?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Genk win (50%). Probabilities: KV Mechelen 25%, draw 25%, Genk 50%.
How many goals are expected in KV Mechelen vs Genk?
The model expects 3.12 goals (KV Mechelen 1.26 · Genk 1.86), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in KV Mechelen vs Genk?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.