Football · Belgium First Division A · 08/11, 16:00

Prediction: Gent vs KV Kortrijk

Team pages: Gent · KV Kortrijk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Gent2.07

KV Kortrijk0.9

1X2

63% 23% 14%

Gent Draw KV Kortrijk

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Gent 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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KV Kortrijk 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gent 5–1 KV Kortrijk (6 last)

Gent1-2KV Kortrijk
KV Kortrijk0-1Gent
KV Kortrijk0-2Gent
Gent3-2KV Kortrijk
Gent2-1KV Kortrijk
KV Kortrijk0-4Gent

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gent 1572 · KV Kortrijk 1412

	Gent	Draw	KV Kortrijk
Our model	63%	22%	15%
Market	63%	23%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gent (rating 1572 vs 1412).
H2H favours Gent: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gent	KV Kortrijk
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.6	0.4 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.3	1.6 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.44

X3.90

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.44▲	Pinn 1.45
X	4.20 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.65 ★
2	7.50 → 6.50▼	Pinn 7.30

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.3% Pinnacle margin 4.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:21 +12’	1.36	4.20	7.50
21:21 +7’	1.42▲	4.00▼	7.00▼
11:23 +2’	1.44▲	3.90▼	6.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:17 +10’	1.45	4.43	6.64
22:16 +18’	1.46▲	4.50▲	6.79▲
06:51 +25’	1.45▼	4.57▲	6.90▲
08:45 +31’	1.46▲	4.52▼	6.75▼
10:14 +7’	1.46	4.52	6.74▼
18:04 +15’	1.45▼	4.55▲	6.83▲
12:27 +33’	1.43▼	4.71▲	7.05▲
16:22 +57’	1.44▲	4.78▲	7.23▲
20:00 +64’	1.45▲	4.65▼	7.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gent 5–0–1 KV Kortrijk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/25 Belgium First Division A	Gent	1-2 HT 0-1	KV Kortrijk
28/07/24 Belgium First Division A	KV Kortrijk	0-1 HT 0-0	Gent
26/12/23 Belgium First Division A	KV Kortrijk	0-2 HT 0-1	Gent
30/07/23 Belgium First Division A	Gent	3-2 HT 2-1	KV Kortrijk
15/01/23 Belgium First Division A	Gent	2-1 HT 1-0	KV Kortrijk
13/11/22 Belgium First Division A	KV Kortrijk	0-4 HT 0-2	Gent

Standings · Belgium First Division A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Brugge	10	9	0	1	26	8	27
2	Charleroi	11	9	0	2	26	13	27
3	Union Saint Gilloise	10	8	2	0	29	7	26
4	Gent	10	8	1	1	19	6	25
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	13	11	19
6	Genk	10	4	3	3	18	14	15
7	Standard Liege	11	4	3	4	18	16	15
8	Lommel	10	4	3	3	13	11	15
9	Westerlo	11	4	2	5	26	30	14
10	KV Mechelen	10	3	3	4	13	18	12
11	Zulte-Waregem	10	3	2	5	12	16	11
12	Antwerp	10	3	1	6	16	22	10
13	SK Beveren	11	3	1	7	13	23	10
14	OH Leuven	10	2	3	5	10	17	9
15	Sint-Truidense	10	2	2	6	18	21	8
16	RAAL La Louviere	10	2	1	7	13	23	7
17	Cercle Brugge	10	1	3	6	13	22	6
18	KV Kortrijk	10	1	1	8	4	22	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gent	KV Kortrijk
Anderlecht	4-0 W	0-1 L
Zulte-Waregem	2-0 W	0-2 L
Standard Liege	2-1 W	1-1 D
Genk	1-1 D	0-3 L
Club Brugge	2-1 W	0-3 L
RAAL La Louviere	2-1 W	0-3 L
KV Mechelen	2-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Gent (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gent

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Lommel Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
25/10	Anderlecht Belgium First Division A	1-0	4-0	2	6	W
10/10	Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
18/09	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	1-1	2-1	5	1	W
13/09	Genk Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-1	9	7	D
06/09	Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A	1-0	3-0	0	1	W
03/09	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
30/08	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	1-1	2-1	1	9	W
16/08	RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
09/08	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	2-0	2-0	4	1	W

KV Kortrijk

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/11	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	0-0	1-3	2	7	L
31/10	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
10/10	Genk Belgium First Division A	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
20/09	SK Beveren Belgium First Division A	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
13/09	RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
06/09	Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
03/09	Anderlecht Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
29/08	Charleroi Belgium First Division A	1-1	1-3	6	2	L
15/08	Antwerp Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
07/08	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-3	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gent vs KV Kortrijk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gent win (63%). Probabilities: Gent 63%, draw 23%, KV Kortrijk 14%.

How many goals are expected in Gent vs KV Kortrijk?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Gent 2.07 · KV Kortrijk 0.9), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gent vs KV Kortrijk?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.