Football · Belgium First Division A · 07/11, 20:45

Prediction: Antwerp vs Lommel

Team pages: Antwerp · Lommel

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Antwerp1.83

Lommel1.22

1X2

51% 25% 25%

Antwerp Draw Lommel

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Antwerp 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWDLLLLLWL

Lommel 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWLLDWDW

Head-to-head

Antwerp 3–1–2 Lommel (6 last)

Antwerp1-0Lommel
Lommel2-4Antwerp
Lommel1-1Antwerp
Antwerp0-1Lommel
Antwerp0-1Lommel
Lommel0-1Antwerp

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Antwerp 1484 · Lommel 1525

	Antwerp	Draw	Lommel
Our model	51%	25%	24%
Market	51%	25%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lommel (rating 1484 vs 1525).
H2H favours Antwerp: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Antwerp	Lommel
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.2	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.7	1.9 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.70

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.86
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.89
2	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.93 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
04:01 +10’	1.80	3.70	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:42	1.85	3.91	3.93
04:48 +23’	1.86▲	3.89▼	3.93

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Antwerp 3–1–2 Lommel

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/02/17 Belgium First Division B	Antwerp	1-0 HT 0-0	Lommel
16/12/16 Belgium First Division B	Lommel	2-4 HT 0-3	Antwerp
23/10/16 Belgium First Division B	Lommel	1-1 HT 0-0	Antwerp
19/08/16 Belgium First Division B	Antwerp	0-1 HT 0-0	Lommel
05/03/16 Belgium First Division B	Antwerp	0-1 HT 0-1	Lommel
11/10/15 Belgium First Division B	Lommel	0-1 HT 0-0	Antwerp

Standings · Belgium First Division A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Brugge	10	9	0	1	26	8	27
2	Union Saint Gilloise	10	8	2	0	29	7	26
3	Gent	10	8	1	1	19	6	25
4	Charleroi	10	8	0	2	21	12	24
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	13	11	19
6	Genk	10	4	3	3	18	14	15
7	Lommel	10	4	3	3	13	11	15
8	Westerlo	10	4	2	4	25	25	14
9	Standard Liege	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
10	Zulte-Waregem	10	3	2	5	12	16	11
11	Antwerp	10	3	1	6	16	22	10
12	SK Beveren	10	3	1	6	13	20	10
13	OH Leuven	10	2	3	5	10	17	9
13	KV Mechelen	9	2	3	4	10	17	9
15	Sint-Truidense	10	2	2	6	18	21	8
16	RAAL La Louviere	10	2	1	7	13	23	7
17	Cercle Brugge	10	1	3	6	13	22	6
18	KV Kortrijk	9	1	1	7	3	19	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Antwerp	Lommel
Cercle Brugge	1-2 L	1-0 W
Charleroi	3-0 W	0-1 L
Westerlo	1-5 L	4-0 W
Union Saint Gilloise	0-2 L	0-5 L
Club Brugge	1-3 L	0-1 L
Sint-Truidense	1-4 L	1-1 D
SK Beveren	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Lommel (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Antwerp

WWDLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
24/10	Charleroi Belgium First Division A	2-0	3-0	5	5	W
11/10	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	1-1	1-5	3	6	L
20/09	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-2	1	7	L
13/09	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	1-1	1-3	4	6	L
05/09	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
30/08	Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A	0-1	1-4	6	4	L
22/08	Genk Belgium First Division A	1-1	4-4	5	2	D
15/08	KV Kortrijk Belgium First Division A	1-0	3-0	10	1	W
09/08	SK Beveren Belgium First Division A	0-1	2-1	5	6	W

Lommel

DLWWLLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Gent Belgium First Division A	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
24/10	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
09/10	SK Beveren Belgium First Division A	1-1	3-1	6	3	W
19/09	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
12/09	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	0-2	0-5	4	2	L
04/09	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
29/08	Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
23/08	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	2-0	4-0	5	0	W
16/08	Charleroi Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
08/08	Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-1	2	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Antwerp vs Lommel?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Antwerp win (51%). Probabilities: Antwerp 51%, draw 25%, Lommel 25%.

How many goals are expected in Antwerp vs Lommel?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Antwerp 1.83 · Lommel 1.22), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Lommel?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.