Football · Belgium First Division A · 07/11, 18:15

Prediction: OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen

Team pages: OH Leuven · KV Mechelen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

OH Leuven1.53

KV Mechelen1.35

1X2

40% 27% 32%

OH Leuven Draw KV Mechelen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

OH Leuven 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDWDDW

KV Mechelen 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLDLLDWW

Head-to-head

OH Leuven 1–3–2 KV Mechelen (6 last)

OH Leuven2-2KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen1-1OH Leuven
OH Leuven1-2KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen1-1OH Leuven
OH Leuven1-0KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen5-0OH Leuven

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · OH Leuven 1486 · KV Mechelen 1474

	OH Leuven	Draw	KV Mechelen
Our model	40%	27%	32%
Market	40%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours KV Mechelen: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	OH Leuven	KV Mechelen
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	1.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +11’	2.25	3.30	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · OH Leuven 1–3–2 KV Mechelen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Belgium First Division A	OH Leuven	2-2 HT 1-0	KV Mechelen
25/10/25 Belgium First Division A	KV Mechelen	1-1 HT 0-0	OH Leuven
03/05/25 Belgium First Division A	OH Leuven	1-2 HT 0-1	KV Mechelen
13/04/25 Belgium First Division A	KV Mechelen	1-1 HT 1-1	OH Leuven
31/01/25 Belgium First Division A	OH Leuven	1-0 HT 1-0	KV Mechelen
05/10/24 Belgium First Division A	KV Mechelen	5-0 HT 2-0	OH Leuven

Standings · Belgium First Division A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Brugge	10	9	0	1	26	8	27
2	Union Saint Gilloise	10	8	2	0	29	7	26
3	Gent	10	8	1	1	19	6	25
4	Charleroi	10	8	0	2	21	12	24
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	13	11	19
6	Genk	10	4	3	3	18	14	15
7	Lommel	10	4	3	3	13	11	15
8	Westerlo	10	4	2	4	25	25	14
9	Standard Liege	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
10	Zulte-Waregem	10	3	2	5	12	16	11
11	Antwerp	10	3	1	6	16	22	10
12	SK Beveren	10	3	1	6	13	20	10
13	OH Leuven	10	2	3	5	10	17	9
13	KV Mechelen	9	2	3	4	10	17	9
15	Sint-Truidense	10	2	2	6	18	21	8
16	RAAL La Louviere	10	2	1	7	13	23	7
17	Cercle Brugge	10	1	3	6	13	22	6
18	KV Kortrijk	9	1	1	7	3	19	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	OH Leuven	KV Mechelen
Sint-Truidense	2-1 W	4-3 W
Lommel	2-2 D	0-0 D
RAAL La Louviere	2-0 W	2-2 D
Gent	0-1 L	0-2 L
Standard Liege	1-2 L	3-3 D
Charleroi	1-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: OH Leuven (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

OH Leuven

LLLLLDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A	0-0	2-1	9	4	W
24/10	Lommel Belgium First Division A	0-1	2-2	7	4	D
11/10	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
19/09	RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
12/09	Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
06/09	SK Beveren Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-3	5	4	L
03/09	Gent Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
29/08	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
15/08	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
09/08	Charleroi Belgium First Division A	1-1	1-3	2	4	L

KV Mechelen

LLDLDLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Genk Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
11/10	Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A	3-1	4-3	2	6	W
19/09	Lommel Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
11/09	Anderlecht Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-1	10	5	L
05/09	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	0-2	0-4	5	5	L
29/08	RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A	1-2	2-2	6	4	D
22/08	Charleroi Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-2	2	0	L
16/08	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	1-2	3-3	5	3	D
09/08	Gent Belgium First Division A	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
24/05	Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A	0-2	0-3	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a OH Leuven win (40%). Probabilities: OH Leuven 40%, draw 27%, KV Mechelen 32%.

How many goals are expected in OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen?

The model expects 2.88 goals (OH Leuven 1.53 · KV Mechelen 1.35), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.