Football · Belgium First Division A · 08/11, 18:30
Prediction: Union Saint Gilloise vs Genk
Team pages: Union Saint Gilloise · Genk
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.2Total
Union Saint Gilloise2.08
Genk1.11
1X2
Union Saint Gilloise
Draw
Genk
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Union Saint Gilloise
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Genk
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union Saint Gilloise
5–1
Genk
(6 last)
- Union Saint Gilloise2-1Genk
- Genk1-2Union Saint Gilloise
- Union Saint Gilloise1-0Genk
- Genk1-2Union Saint Gilloise
- Genk2-1Union Saint Gilloise
- Union Saint Gilloise4-0Genk
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Saint Gilloise 1650 · Genk 1511
| Union Saint Gilloise | Draw | Genk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 23% | 19% |
| Market | 58% | 23% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Saint Gilloise (rating 1650 vs 1511).
- H2H favours Union Saint Gilloise: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Saint Gilloise | Genk | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 0.7 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 6.4 | 2.5 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.4 | 4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Saint Gilloise 5–0–1 Genk
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Belgium First Division A | Union Saint Gilloise | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Genk |
| 21/09/25 Belgium First Division A | Genk | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Union Saint Gilloise |
| 03/05/25 Belgium First Division A | Union Saint Gilloise | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Genk |
| 20/04/25 Belgium First Division A | Genk | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Union Saint Gilloise |
| 15/03/25 Belgium First Division A | Genk | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Union Saint Gilloise |
| 10/11/24 Belgium First Division A | Union Saint Gilloise | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Genk |
Standings · Belgium First Division A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 8 | 27 |
| 2 | Charleroi | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 13 | 27 |
| 3 | Union Saint Gilloise | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 7 | 26 |
| 4 | Gent | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 25 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 19 |
| 6 | Lommel | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 16 |
| 7 | Genk | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 15 |
| 8 | Standard Liege | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 15 |
| 9 | Westerlo | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 30 | 14 |
| 10 | OH Leuven | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 12 |
| 11 | KV Mechelen | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 12 |
| 12 | Zulte-Waregem | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 11 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 24 | 11 |
| 14 | SK Beveren | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 23 | 10 |
| 15 | Cercle Brugge | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 9 |
| 16 | Sint-Truidense | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 21 | 8 |
| 17 | RAAL La Louviere | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 7 |
| 18 | KV Kortrijk | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 22 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union Saint Gilloise | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| SK Beveren | 2-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Antwerp | 2-0 W | 4-4 D |
| Anderlecht | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Zulte-Waregem | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Westerlo | 5-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Union Saint Gilloise (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Saint Gilloise
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | SK Beveren Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 25/10 | Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 5-2 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | OH Leuven Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | Antwerp Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 12/09 | Lommel Belgium First Division A |
2-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Charleroi Belgium First Division A |
2-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | Anderlecht Belgium First Division A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 08/08 | Westerlo Belgium First Division A |
1-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
Genk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 25/10 | Standard Liege Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | KV Kortrijk Belgium First Division A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Club Brugge Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | Gent Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | Anderlecht Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 28/08 | SK Beveren Belgium First Division A |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Antwerp Belgium First Division A |
1-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 15/08 | Westerlo Belgium First Division A |
2-2 | 3-2 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 09/08 | Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Saint Gilloise vs Genk?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Saint Gilloise win (58%). Probabilities: Union Saint Gilloise 58%, draw 23%, Genk 18%.
How many goals are expected in Union Saint Gilloise vs Genk?
The model expects 3.2 goals (Union Saint Gilloise 2.08 · Genk 1.11), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Saint Gilloise vs Genk?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.