Football · Belgium First Division A · 25/10, 18:30

Prediction: Gent vs Anderlecht

Team pages: Gent · Anderlecht

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Gent1.35

Anderlecht1.13

1X2

41% 29% 31%

Gent Draw Anderlecht

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Gent 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWWDWW

Anderlecht 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWDWWW

Head-to-head

Gent 1–1–4 Anderlecht (6 last)

Gent1-1Anderlecht
Anderlecht3-1Gent
Gent4-2Anderlecht
Anderlecht1-0Gent
Anderlecht1-0Gent
Gent0-1Anderlecht

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gent 1574 · Anderlecht 1531

	Gent	Draw	Anderlecht
Our model	40%	30%	30%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gent (rating 1574 vs 1531).
H2H favours Anderlecht: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gent	Anderlecht
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.7	2.4 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.4	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.25▼	Pinn 2.34
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	2.75 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.28 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:24 +11’	2.40	3.25	2.75
11:22 +4’	2.25▼	3.30▲	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:58 +25’	2.57	3.02	3.05
02:30 +45’	2.47▼	3.04▲	3.17▲
14:45 +41’	2.50▲	3.06▲	3.10▼
08:57 +21’	2.40▼	3.12▲	3.21▲
10:34 +52’	2.34▼	3.15▲	3.28▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gent 1–1–4 Anderlecht

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Belgium First Division A	Gent	1-1 HT 1-1	Anderlecht
12/04/26 Belgium First Division A	Anderlecht	3-1 HT 0-1	Gent
18/01/26 Belgium First Division A	Gent	4-2 HT 1-2	Anderlecht
15/01/26 Belgium Cup	Anderlecht	1-0 HT 1-0	Gent
23/09/25 Belgium First Division A	Anderlecht	1-0 HT 0-0	Gent
27/04/25 Belgium First Division A	Gent	0-1 HT 0-0	Anderlecht

Standings · Belgium First Division A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gent	8	7	1	0	15	4	22
2	Club Brugge	8	7	0	1	19	4	21
3	Charleroi	8	7	0	1	16	7	21
4	Union Saint Gilloise	8	6	2	0	22	4	20
5	Anderlecht	8	5	1	2	9	6	16
6	Westerlo	8	4	1	3	20	17	13
7	Genk	8	3	3	2	16	12	12
8	Zulte-Waregem	8	3	2	3	10	9	11
9	Standard Liege	8	3	2	3	13	13	11
10	Lommel	8	3	2	3	9	9	11
11	SK Beveren	8	3	0	5	8	14	9
12	Sint-Truidense	8	2	2	4	15	16	8
13	Antwerp	8	2	1	5	12	20	7
14	KV Mechelen	8	1	3	4	9	17	6
15	OH Leuven	8	1	2	5	6	14	5
16	RAAL La Louviere	8	1	1	6	8	18	4
17	KV Kortrijk	8	1	0	7	2	18	3
18	Cercle Brugge	8	0	3	5	9	16	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gent	Anderlecht
Zulte-Waregem	2-0 W	3-0 W
Genk	1-1 D	0-0 D
Cercle Brugge	3-0 W	2-1 W
RAAL La Louviere	2-1 W	2-1 W
KV Mechelen	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Gent (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gent

LDWWWWWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
18/09	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	1-1	2-1	5	1	W
13/09	Genk Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-1	9	7	D
06/09	Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A	1-0	3-0	0	1	W
03/09	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
30/08	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	1-1	2-1	1	9	W
16/08	RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
09/08	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	2-0	2-0	4	1	W
31/05	Genk Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
24/05	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-3	0-5	8	1	L

Anderlecht

WLWLLWDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
19/09	Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A	1-0	3-0	8	3	W
11/09	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
06/09	Genk Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
03/09	KV Kortrijk Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
30/08	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
16/08	SK Beveren Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-1	12	1	L
09/08	RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A	0-0	2-1	10	4	W
24/05	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	0-4	1-5	1	5	L
21/05	Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A	2-0	3-1	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gent vs Anderlecht?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gent win (41%). Probabilities: Gent 41%, draw 29%, Anderlecht 31%.

How many goals are expected in Gent vs Anderlecht?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Gent 1.35 · Anderlecht 1.13), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gent vs Anderlecht?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.