Football · Belgium First Division A · 24/10, 16:00
Prediction: Antwerp vs Charleroi
Team pages: Antwerp · Charleroi
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.77Total
Antwerp1.07
Charleroi1.71
1X2
Antwerp
Draw
Charleroi
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Antwerp
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Charleroi
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Antwerp
0–1–5
Charleroi
(6 last)
- Antwerp0-1Charleroi
- Charleroi2-1Antwerp
- Antwerp0-2Charleroi
- Charleroi1-1Antwerp
- Antwerp1-2Charleroi
- Antwerp1-3Charleroi
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Antwerp 1449 · Charleroi 1597
| Antwerp | Draw | Charleroi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 26% | 51% |
| Market | 23% | 25% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charleroi (rating 1449 vs 1597).
- H2H favours Charleroi: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Antwerp | Charleroi | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2 | 1.9 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.7 | 2.9 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 2.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Antwerp 0–1–5 Charleroi
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Belgium First Division A | Antwerp | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Charleroi |
| 10/04/26 Belgium First Division A | Charleroi | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Antwerp |
| 25/01/26 Belgium First Division A | Antwerp | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Charleroi |
| 17/08/25 Belgium First Division A | Charleroi | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Antwerp |
| 29/05/25 Belgium First Division A | Antwerp | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Charleroi |
| 08/12/24 Belgium First Division A | Antwerp | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Charleroi |
Standings · Belgium First Division A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 4 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Union Saint Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 16 |
| 6 | Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 13 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 12 |
| 8 | Zulte-Waregem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 11 |
| 10 | Lommel | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 11 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 9 |
| 12 | Sint-Truidense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 16 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 20 | 7 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louviere | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 4 |
| 17 | KV Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 3 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Antwerp | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| Union Saint Gilloise | 0-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Standard Liege | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| KV Kortrijk | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Charleroi (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Antwerp
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Westerlo Belgium First Division A |
1-1 | 1-5 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 20/09 | Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 13/09 | Club Brugge Belgium First Division A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Standard Liege Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Genk Belgium First Division A |
1-1 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 15/08 | KV Kortrijk Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | SK Beveren Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Westerlo Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 19/05 | Genk Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
Charleroi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Standard Liege Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A |
2-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | KV Kortrijk Belgium First Division A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 16/08 | Lommel Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | OH Leuven Belgium First Division A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Standard Liege Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 8 | W |
| 19/05 | OH Leuven Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Charleroi win (52%). Probabilities: Antwerp 23%, draw 25%, Charleroi 52%.
How many goals are expected in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
The model expects 2.77 goals (Antwerp 1.07 · Charleroi 1.71), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.