Football · Austria Bundesliga · 08/08, 19:30
Prediction: Hartberg vs SK Sturm Graz
Team pages: Hartberg · SK Sturm Graz
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.48Total
Hartberg0.87
SK Sturm Graz1.62
1X2
Hartberg
Draw
SK Sturm Graz
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Hartberg
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
SK Sturm Graz
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hartberg
0–1–5
SK Sturm Graz
(6 last)
- Hartberg2-4SK Sturm Graz
- SK Sturm Graz0-0Hartberg
- Hartberg0-1SK Sturm Graz
- SK Sturm Graz1-0Hartberg
- Hartberg1-2SK Sturm Graz
- SK Sturm Graz2-0Hartberg
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hartberg 1505 · SK Sturm Graz 1599
| Hartberg | Draw | SK Sturm Graz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 27% | 54% |
| Market | 20% | 24% | 55% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Sturm Graz (rating 1505 vs 1599).
- H2H favours SK Sturm Graz: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hartberg | SK Sturm Graz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1 | 2.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.5 | 3.4 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.3 / 0 | 2.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hartberg 0–1–5 SK Sturm Graz
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Austria Bundesliga | Hartberg | 2-4 HT 1-3 | SK Sturm Graz |
| 12/04/26 Austria Bundesliga | SK Sturm Graz | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Hartberg |
| 30/11/25 Austria Bundesliga | Hartberg | 0-1 HT 0-0 | SK Sturm Graz |
| 28/09/25 Austria Bundesliga | SK Sturm Graz | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Hartberg |
| 09/11/24 Austria Bundesliga | Hartberg | 1-2 HT 0-1 | SK Sturm Graz |
| 11/08/24 Austria Bundesliga | SK Sturm Graz | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Hartberg |
Standings · Austria Bundesliga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LASK Linz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | SK Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | WSG Swarovski Tirol | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Austria Lustenau | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | FK Austria Vienna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | SCR Altach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Rapid Vienna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | SV Ried | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Wolfsberger AC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Hartberg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | Grazer AK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hartberg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 26/07 | SC Imst Austria Cup |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | ASK Voitsberg Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | First Vienna FC 1894 Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 11/07 | FK Pribram Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 08/07 | FC Brno Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Ujpest Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 01/07 | SC Weiz Europe Friendlies |
2-2 | 2-3 | 16 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Admira Wacker Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
SK Sturm Graz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 28/07 | Hearts UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 24/07 | Seekirchen Austria Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 21/07 | Hearts UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 15/07 | Pogon Szczecin Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 08/07 | SC Kalsdorf Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 03/07 | FC Kosice Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 30/06 | LNZ Lebedyn Europe Friendlies |
1-4 | 2-6 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | NS Mura Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 5-0 | 14 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hartberg vs SK Sturm Graz?
According to our model, the most likely result is an SK Sturm Graz win (55%). Probabilities: Hartberg 20%, draw 26%, SK Sturm Graz 55%.
How many goals are expected in Hartberg vs SK Sturm Graz?
The model expects 2.48 goals (Hartberg 0.87 · SK Sturm Graz 1.62), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Hartberg vs SK Sturm Graz?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.