Football · Austria Bundesliga · 30/08, 17:00

Prediction: Rapid Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz

Team pages: Rapid Vienna · SK Sturm Graz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Rapid Vienna1.48

SK Sturm Graz1.13

1X2

45% 27% 28%

Rapid Vienna Draw SK Sturm Graz

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Rapid Vienna 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWWWW

SK Sturm Graz 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

DDDDWWDWWD

Head-to-head

Rapid Vienna 3–3 SK Sturm Graz (6 last)

SK Sturm Graz2-0Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna0-2SK Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna2-1SK Sturm Graz
SK Sturm Graz1-2Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna3-1SK Sturm Graz
SK Sturm Graz2-0Rapid Vienna

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rapid Vienna 1601 · SK Sturm Graz 1587

	Rapid Vienna	Draw	SK Sturm Graz
Our model	44%	28%	28%
Market	45%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rapid Vienna	SK Sturm Graz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.3	2.9 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.18
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.97 ★
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +5’	2.05	3.50	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:29 +1’	2.18	3.97	2.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rapid Vienna 3–0–3 SK Sturm Graz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	2-0 HT 0-0	Rapid Vienna
05/04/26 Austria Bundesliga	Rapid Vienna	0-2 HT 0-1	SK Sturm Graz
02/11/25 Austria Bundesliga	Rapid Vienna	2-1 HT 0-1	SK Sturm Graz
10/08/25 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	1-2 HT 0-0	Rapid Vienna
18/05/25 Austria Bundesliga	Rapid Vienna	3-1 HT 2-0	SK Sturm Graz
04/04/25 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	2-0 HT 1-0	Rapid Vienna

Standings · Austria Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rapid Vienna	3	3	0	0	11	1	9
2	LASK Linz	3	3	0	0	9	1	9
3	SK Sturm Graz	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
4	FC Salzburg	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
5	Austria Lustenau	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
6	Wolfsberger AC	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
7	SV Ried	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
8	FK Austria Vienna	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
9	Hartberg	4	1	0	3	2	6	3
10	Grazer AK	4	1	0	3	2	13	3
11	SCR Altach	4	1	0	3	4	5	3
12	WSG Swarovski Tirol	3	0	1	2	2	7	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rapid Vienna	SK Sturm Graz
SCR Altach	1-0 W	1-0 W
FK Austria Vienna	0-2 L	1-1 D
LASK Linz	1-3 L	1-1 D
FC Salzburg	1-0 W	1-1 D
Hartberg	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: SK Sturm Graz (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rapid Vienna

LWLLLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Grazer AK Austria Bundesliga	5-0	8-0	8	4	W
09/08	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
02/08	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/05	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	1-0	3-0	7	1	W
22/05	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
17/05	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
10/05	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
04/05	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	1-0	1-3	0	1	L
26/04	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/04	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-2	11	4	L

SK Sturm Graz

DDDDWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
15/08	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	12	2	W
08/08	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
01/08	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
17/05	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
10/05	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	3-1	4-2	7	6	W
03/05	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
26/04	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
22/04	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
19/04	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	1-0	1-1	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rapid Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rapid Vienna win (45%). Probabilities: Rapid Vienna 45%, draw 27%, SK Sturm Graz 28%.

How many goals are expected in Rapid Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Rapid Vienna 1.48 · SK Sturm Graz 1.13), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.