Football · Austria Bundesliga · 18/10, 17:00

Prediction: SK Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK

Team pages: SK Sturm Graz · Grazer AK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

SK Sturm Graz1.78

Grazer AK1.13

1X2

51% 26% 23%

SK Sturm Graz Draw Grazer AK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SK Sturm Graz 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDLWLW

Grazer AK 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLDWDD

Head-to-head

SK Sturm Graz 6–0 Grazer AK (6 last)

SK Sturm Graz2-1Grazer AK
Grazer AK0-3SK Sturm Graz
Grazer AK1-2SK Sturm Graz
SK Sturm Graz5-2Grazer AK
Grazer AK2-3SK Sturm Graz
Grazer AK0-1SK Sturm Graz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Sturm Graz 1568 · Grazer AK 1548

	SK Sturm Graz	Draw	Grazer AK
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SK Sturm Graz: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Sturm Graz	Grazer AK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 7.7	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.5	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.60

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 21:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.83▲	Pinn 1.84
X	3.80 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.92 ★
2	4.50 → 4.10▼	Pinn 4.11

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 4.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +3’	1.67	3.80	4.50
21:12 +30’	1.70▲	3.80	4.33▼
03:21 +5’	1.70	3.80	4.75▲
17:36 +3’	1.91▲	3.60▼	3.80▼
21:24 +4’	1.83▼	3.60	4.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:00 +448’	1.68	4.07	4.70
09:20 +65’	1.67▼	4.10▲	4.70
17:13 +34’	1.70▲	4.04▼	4.54▼
20:47 +54’	1.72▲	4.00▼	4.46▼
14:33 +61’	1.72▼	4.01▲	4.46
00:06 +14’	1.74▲	3.98▼	4.42▼
16:14 +86’	1.82▲	3.89▼	4.08▼
18:52 +157’	1.84▲	3.84▼	4.03▼
17:04 +26’	1.84	3.92▲	4.11▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Sturm Graz 6–0–0 Grazer AK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/12/25 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	2-1 HT 1-0	Grazer AK
30/08/25 Austria Bundesliga	Grazer AK	0-3 HT 0-1	SK Sturm Graz
09/03/25 Austria Bundesliga	Grazer AK	1-2 HT 0-0	SK Sturm Graz
19/10/24 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	5-2 HT 3-0	Grazer AK
02/11/23 Austria Cup	Grazer AK	2-3 HT 2-1	SK Sturm Graz
19/10/22 Austria Cup	Grazer AK	0-1 HT 0-0	SK Sturm Graz

Standings · Austria Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rapid Vienna	9	8	0	1	26	8	24
2	FC Salzburg	8	5	3	0	18	4	18
3	LASK Linz	8	5	1	2	19	9	16
4	SK Sturm Graz	8	4	2	2	10	9	14
5	Hartberg	9	3	2	4	15	19	11
6	SV Ried	8	3	2	3	13	13	11
7	Grazer AK	8	2	3	3	6	16	9
8	WSG Swarovski Tirol	8	2	2	4	10	14	8
9	Austria Lustenau	8	2	2	4	11	15	8
10	FK Austria Vienna	8	2	1	5	7	15	7
11	SCR Altach	8	2	0	6	8	12	6
12	Wolfsberger AC	8	1	2	5	7	16	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Sturm Graz	Grazer AK
FK Austria Vienna	2-0 W	2-2 D
FC Salzburg	0-3 L	0-0 D
LASK Linz	2-1 W	0-3 L
Rapid Vienna	1-3 L	0-8 L
Austria Lustenau	1-1 D	2-1 W
SCR Altach	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SK Sturm Graz (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Sturm Graz

WWDWWDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
20/09	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-3	8	3	L
13/09	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
30/08	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-2	1-3	4	6	L
22/08	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
15/08	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	12	2	W
08/08	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
01/08	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
17/05	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
10/05	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	3-1	4-2	7	6	W

Grazer AK

DWLWLLDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
19/09	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-1	2-2	2	8	D
12/09	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
29/08	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-0	11	7	D
21/08	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
16/08	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-5	0-8	1	4	L
08/08	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
31/07	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
16/05	FC Blau Weiss Linz Austria Bundesliga	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
09/05	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	0-1	2-2	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SK Sturm Graz win (51%). Probabilities: SK Sturm Graz 51%, draw 26%, Grazer AK 23%.

How many goals are expected in SK Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?

The model expects 2.91 goals (SK Sturm Graz 1.78 · Grazer AK 1.13), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.