Football · Austria Bundesliga · 25/10, 14:30

Prediction: SK Sturm Graz vs SV Ried

Team pages: SK Sturm Graz · SV Ried

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

SK Sturm Graz1.9

SV Ried1.11

1X2

55% 24% 21%

SK Sturm Graz Draw SV Ried

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

SK Sturm Graz 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLWLWW

SV Ried 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLDWWW

Head-to-head

SK Sturm Graz 4–2–0 SV Ried (6 last)

SK Sturm Graz1-0SV Ried
SV Ried1-3SK Sturm Graz
SV Ried1-3SK Sturm Graz
SK Sturm Graz2-1SV Ried
SV Ried1-1SK Sturm Graz
SV Ried2-2SK Sturm Graz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Sturm Graz 1581 · SV Ried 1514

	SK Sturm Graz	Draw	SV Ried
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Sturm Graz (rating 1581 vs 1514).
H2H favours SK Sturm Graz: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Sturm Graz	SV Ried
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	1.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 7.7	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.5	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 11:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.73▼	Bet365 1.73
X	3.80 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.24 ★
2	3.90 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 5.1% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +5’	1.75	3.80	3.90
07:09 +3’	1.67▼	3.90▲	4.33▲
16:17 +6’	1.73▲	4.00▲	4.33
11:21 +2’	1.73	4.00	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:08 +251’	1.68	4.29	4.43
08:30 +42’	1.67▼	4.33▲	4.47▲
12:42 +37’	1.69▲	4.27▼	4.35▼
18:51 +43’	1.76▲	4.14▼	4.08▼
00:12 +4’	1.70▼	4.25▲	4.31▲
18:29 +7’	1.71▲	4.22▼	4.31
16:10 +25’	1.70▼	4.24▲	4.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Sturm Graz 4–2–0 SV Ried

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	1-0 HT 0-0	SV Ried
16/08/25 Austria Bundesliga	SV Ried	1-3 HT 1-3	SK Sturm Graz
28/08/24 Austria Cup	SV Ried	1-3 HT 1-3	SK Sturm Graz
30/10/22 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	2-1 HT 1-0	SV Ried
06/08/22 Austria Bundesliga	SV Ried	1-1 HT 0-1	SK Sturm Graz
06/03/22 Austria Bundesliga	SV Ried	2-2 HT 0-0	SK Sturm Graz

Standings · Austria Bundesliga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rapid Vienna	9	8	0	1	26	8	24
2	FC Salzburg	9	6	3	0	21	4	21
3	LASK Linz	9	6	1	2	23	9	19
4	SK Sturm Graz	9	5	2	2	16	10	17
5	SV Ried	9	4	2	3	16	15	14
6	WSG Swarovski Tirol	9	3	2	4	12	14	11
7	Hartberg	9	3	2	4	15	19	11
8	Grazer AK	9	2	3	4	7	22	9
9	Austria Lustenau	9	2	2	5	11	19	8
10	FK Austria Vienna	9	2	1	6	9	18	7
11	SCR Altach	9	2	0	7	8	15	6
12	Wolfsberger AC	9	1	2	6	7	18	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Sturm Graz	SV Ried
Grazer AK	6-1 W	1-0 W
FK Austria Vienna	2-0 W	3-2 W
FC Salzburg	0-3 L	1-1 D
LASK Linz	2-1 W	1-4 L
Rapid Vienna	1-3 L	1-2 L
Austria Lustenau	1-1 D	1-1 D
Hartberg	2-0 W	2-3 L
WSG Swarovski Tirol	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: SK Sturm Graz (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Sturm Graz

WDWWDLWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Grazer AK Austria Bundesliga	3-1	6-1	7	3	W
10/10	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
20/09	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-3	8	3	L
13/09	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
30/08	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-2	1-3	4	6	L
22/08	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
15/08	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	12	2	W
08/08	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
01/08	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
17/05	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	2-0	9	1	W

SV Ried

LDLLWLDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
10/10	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	2-1	2-1	4	3	W
20/09	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	3-0	4-1	0	7	W
11/09	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
30/08	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	1-2	2-3	4	3	L
21/08	Grazer AK Austria Bundesliga	1-0	1-0	7	7	W
14/08	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	1-3	1-4	0	4	L
09/08	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
02/08	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	1-1	1-1	9	4	D
25/05	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-3	4	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Sturm Graz vs SV Ried?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SK Sturm Graz win (55%). Probabilities: SK Sturm Graz 55%, draw 24%, SV Ried 21%.

How many goals are expected in SK Sturm Graz vs SV Ried?

The model expects 3 goals (SK Sturm Graz 1.9 · SV Ried 1.11), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Sturm Graz vs SV Ried?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.