Football · England EFL Cup · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Leicester vs Northampton
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
Leicester2.29
Northampton0.86
1X2
Leicester
Draw
Northampton
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Leicester
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Northampton
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Leicester
2–0
Northampton
(2 last)
- Leicester3-0Northampton
- Northampton0-1Leicester
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leicester 1538 · Northampton 1451
| Leicester | Draw | Northampton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 20% | 12% |
| Market | 70% | 17% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leicester (rating 1538 vs 1451).
- H2H favours Leicester: 2-0-0.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Leicester | Northampton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 7.4 | 2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 2.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Leicester 2–0–0 Northampton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/26 Club Friendly List | Leicester | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Northampton |
| 15/07/23 Club Friendly List | Northampton | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Leicester |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leicester
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Genoa Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Malaga Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-3 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 22/07 | Cadiz Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Burton Albion UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 14/07 | Bristol Rovers Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Northampton Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | Millwall England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 21/04 | Hull England Championship |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 18/04 | Portsmouth England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
Northampton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Solihull Moors UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-2 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 28/07 | Cambridge Utd UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 25/07 | Birmingham Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 22/07 | Southend UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Coventry Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 11/07 | Leicester Club Friendly List |
0-3 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | Plymouth England League 1 |
2-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 28/04 | Barnsley England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Cardiff England League 1 |
0-3 | 1-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Doncaster England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leicester vs Northampton?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Leicester win (69%). Probabilities: Leicester 69%, draw 18%, Northampton 12%.
How many goals are expected in Leicester vs Northampton?
The model expects 3.15 goals (Leicester 2.29 · Northampton 0.86), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Northampton?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.