Football · England EFL Cup · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Leyton Orient vs Oxford Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
Leyton Orient1.27
Oxford Utd1.35
1X2
Leyton Orient
Draw
Oxford Utd
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Leyton Orient
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Oxford Utd
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Leyton Orient
2–1–2
Oxford Utd
(5 last)
- Oxford Utd1-2Leyton Orient
- Leyton Orient2-3Oxford Utd
- Oxford Utd5-0Leyton Orient
- Oxford Utd0-1Leyton Orient
- Leyton Orient2-2Oxford Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leyton Orient 1469 · Oxford Utd 1565
| Leyton Orient | Draw | Oxford Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 29% | 38% |
| Market | 35% | 26% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oxford Utd (rating 1469 vs 1565).
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Leyton Orient | Oxford Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.8 | 2.4 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Leyton Orient 2–1–2 Oxford Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/24 England League 1 | Oxford Utd | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Leyton Orient |
| 11/11/23 England League 1 | Leyton Orient | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Oxford Utd |
| 30/08/22 England EFL Trophy | Oxford Utd | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Leyton Orient |
| 12/03/16 England League 2 | Oxford Utd | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Leyton Orient |
| 17/10/15 England League 2 | Leyton Orient | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Oxford Utd |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leyton Orient
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Swindon UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Southend UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 21/07 | AFC Hornchurch Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 21/07 | Cheshunt Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 0 | L |
| 17/07 | Lincoln City UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 10/07 | Enfield Town Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Blackpool England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Rotherham England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 14/04 | Mansfield England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
Oxford Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Ipswich Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Ipswich Town XI Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/07 | Crawley Town UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Barnet UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 21/07 | Aldershot UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Millwall England Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Sheff Wed England Championship |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 21/04 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Derby England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Watford England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leyton Orient vs Oxford Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Oxford Utd win (38%). Probabilities: Leyton Orient 34%, draw 27%, Oxford Utd 38%.
How many goals are expected in Leyton Orient vs Oxford Utd?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Leyton Orient 1.27 · Oxford Utd 1.35), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Leyton Orient vs Oxford Utd?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.