Football · England EFL Cup · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Gillingham vs Luton
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.23Total
Gillingham1.22
Luton2.01
1X2
Gillingham
Draw
Luton
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Gillingham
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Luton
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gillingham
1–1–4
Luton
(6 last)
- Gillingham0-2Luton
- Luton3-2Gillingham
- Luton2-2Gillingham
- Gillingham1-3Luton
- Gillingham1-2Luton
- Gillingham2-1Luton
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gillingham 1509 · Luton 1610
| Gillingham | Draw | Luton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Market | 21% | 25% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luton (rating 1509 vs 1610).
- H2H favours Luton: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gillingham | Luton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 2.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.6 | 2.7 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.2 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gillingham 1–1–4 Luton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/25 UK Friendlies | Gillingham | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Luton |
| 29/08/23 England EFL Cup | Luton | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Gillingham |
| 16/03/19 England League 1 | Luton | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Gillingham |
| 24/11/18 England League 1 | Gillingham | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Luton |
| 30/08/16 England EFL Trophy | Gillingham | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Luton |
| 06/10/15 England EFL Trophy | Gillingham | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Luton |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gillingham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Ebbsfleet United UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 21/07 | Millwall UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Charlton UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 14/07 | Dover Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Barnet England League 2 |
1-5 | 2-6 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 14/04 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 06/04 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
Luton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Al Kholood World Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 18/07 | Barnet UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 12 | 0 | D |
| 11/07 | Hitchin UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Bolton England League 1 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Barnsley England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 21/04 | Rotherham England League 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Mansfield England League 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 15/04 | Northampton England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Stockport England EFL Trophy |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 06/04 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gillingham vs Luton?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Luton win (54%). Probabilities: Gillingham 21%, draw 24%, Luton 54%.
How many goals are expected in Gillingham vs Luton?
The model expects 3.23 goals (Gillingham 1.22 · Luton 2.01), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Luton?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.