Football · England EFL Cup · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Bristol Rovers vs Peterborough
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.31Total
Bristol Rovers1.71
Peterborough1.6
1X2
Bristol Rovers
Draw
Peterborough
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Bristol Rovers
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Peterborough
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bristol Rovers
2–1–3
Peterborough
(6 last)
- Bristol Rovers3-1Peterborough
- Peterborough3-2Bristol Rovers
- Bristol Rovers0-2Peterborough
- Peterborough2-0Bristol Rovers
- Peterborough0-0Bristol Rovers
- Bristol Rovers1-0Peterborough
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bristol Rovers 1565 · Peterborough 1486
| Bristol Rovers | Draw | Peterborough | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Market | 39% | 27% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bristol Rovers (rating 1565 vs 1486).
- H2H favours Peterborough: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bristol Rovers | Peterborough | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.1 | 2.8 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.1 | 1.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bristol Rovers 2–1–3 Peterborough
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/25 England League 1 | Bristol Rovers | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Peterborough |
| 21/09/24 England League 1 | Peterborough | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Bristol Rovers |
| 20/04/24 England League 1 | Bristol Rovers | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Peterborough |
| 30/09/23 England League 1 | Peterborough | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Bristol Rovers |
| 29/04/23 England League 1 | Peterborough | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Bristol Rovers |
| 19/11/22 England League 1 | Bristol Rovers | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Peterborough |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bristol Rovers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Forest Green UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/07 | Portsmouth UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 14/07 | Leicester Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Salisbury FC Club Friendly List |
2-2 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 07/07 | Weston Super Mare UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Notts County England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 25/04 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Tranmere England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 11/04 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 06/04 | Harrogate Town England League 2 |
0-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
Peterborough
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | West Brom UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 28/07 | York UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Boston Utd UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 22/07 | Peterborough Sports Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 21/07 | Colchester UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-2 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 17/07 | Neom SC World Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Doncaster England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 28/04 | Mansfield England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Stockport England League 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bristol Rovers vs Peterborough?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bristol Rovers win (39%). Probabilities: Bristol Rovers 39%, draw 26%, Peterborough 35%.
How many goals are expected in Bristol Rovers vs Peterborough?
The model expects 3.31 goals (Bristol Rovers 1.71 · Peterborough 1.6), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Bristol Rovers vs Peterborough?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.