Football · England EFL Cup · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Cardiff vs Swindon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.94Total
Cardiff2.69
Swindon1.25
1X2
Cardiff
Draw
Swindon
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Cardiff
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Swindon
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cardiff
2–0
Swindon
(2 last)
- Cardiff2-1Swindon
- Swindon2-4Cardiff
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cardiff 1582 · Swindon 1479
| Cardiff | Draw | Swindon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| Market | 67% | 19% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cardiff (rating 1582 vs 1479).
- H2H favours Cardiff: 2-0-0.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cardiff | Swindon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.7 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 7.1 | 2.9 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 1.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cardiff 2–0–0 Swindon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/25 England EFL Cup | Cardiff | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Swindon |
| 23/07/22 Club Friendly List | Swindon | 2-4 HT 0-3 | Cardiff |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cardiff
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Roma Elite Club Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Forest Green UK Friendlies |
5-0 | 5-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 14/07 | Cork City Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 6-1 | 12 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Midtjylland Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 0-6 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Mansfield England League 1 |
0-3 | 4-5 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Northampton England League 1 |
3-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/04 | Port Vale England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Reading England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 14/04 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 11/04 | Bolton England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
Swindon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Forest Green UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 28/07 | Leyton Orient UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | Bristol City UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Crystal Palace Elite Club Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Chippenham Town UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Swindon Supermarine UK Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-3 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 10/04 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cardiff vs Swindon?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cardiff win (67%). Probabilities: Cardiff 67%, draw 19%, Swindon 14%.
How many goals are expected in Cardiff vs Swindon?
The model expects 3.94 goals (Cardiff 2.69 · Swindon 1.25), with a 59% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Swindon?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.