Football · England EFL Cup · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Derby vs Lincoln City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.33Total
Derby1.87
Lincoln City1.46
1X2
Derby
Draw
Lincoln City
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Derby
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Lincoln City
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Derby
2–2–1
Lincoln City
(5 last)
- Lincoln City0-0Derby
- Derby3-1Lincoln City
- Derby2-0Lincoln City
- Derby1-1Lincoln City
- Lincoln City2-0Derby
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Derby 1489 · Lincoln City 1537
| Derby | Draw | Lincoln City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 24% | 29% |
| Market | 46% | 25% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lincoln City (rating 1489 vs 1537).
- H2H favours Derby: 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Derby | Lincoln City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.6 | 2.2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 2.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Derby 2–2–1 Lincoln City
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/24 England League 1 | Lincoln City | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Derby |
| 21/12/23 England League 1 | Derby | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Lincoln City |
| 19/09/23 England EFL Trophy | Derby | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Lincoln City |
| 14/02/23 England League 1 | Derby | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Lincoln City |
| 13/09/22 England League 1 | Lincoln City | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Derby |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Derby
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Burton Albion UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 31/07 | Mansfield UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 28/07 | Valencia Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/07 | SC Freiburg Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 17/07 | Alfreton Town UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | QPR England Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/04 | Norwich England Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Oxford Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 11/04 | Southampton England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
Lincoln City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Barnsley UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Doncaster UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 28/07 | Grimsby UK Friendlies |
0-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 17/07 | Leyton Orient UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Boston Utd UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Port Vale England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Wycombe England League 1 |
2-0 | 4-3 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 21/04 | Doncaster England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Stevenage England League 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Derby vs Lincoln City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Derby win (46%). Probabilities: Derby 46%, draw 25%, Lincoln City 29%.
How many goals are expected in Derby vs Lincoln City?
The model expects 3.33 goals (Derby 1.87 · Lincoln City 1.46), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Lincoln City?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.