Football · England EFL Cup · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Burnley vs Notts County
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.89Total
Burnley1.92
Notts County0.97
1X2
Burnley
Draw
Notts County
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Burnley
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
Notts County
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Burnley 1436 · Notts County 1498
| Burnley | Draw | Notts County | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Notts County (rating 1436 vs 1498).
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Burnley | Notts County | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.3 | 2.5 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 2.9 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Burnley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Espanyol Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 26/07 | Ajax Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 16/07 | Real Salt Lake World Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Columbus Crew Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 11/07 | FC Cincinnati World Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | Wolverhampton England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 18/05 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 01/05 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 22/04 | Man City England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
Notts County
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Walsall UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 18/07 | Nottm Forest Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 14/07 | Randers FC Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Viborg Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 04/07 | Alfreton Town UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 5-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 25/05 | Salford City England League 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 25/04 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Burnley vs Notts County?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Burnley win (58%). Probabilities: Burnley 58%, draw 24%, Notts County 18%.
How many goals are expected in Burnley vs Notts County?
The model expects 2.89 goals (Burnley 1.92 · Notts County 0.97), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Notts County?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.