Football · England EFL Cup · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Crewe vs Accrington Stanley
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.8Total
Crewe1.7
Accrington Stanley1.1
1X2
Crewe
Draw
Accrington Stanley
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Crewe
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Accrington Stanley
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Crewe
2–2–2
Accrington Stanley
(6 last)
- Accrington Stanley2-0Crewe
- Crewe2-0Accrington Stanley
- Crewe0-1Accrington Stanley
- Accrington Stanley0-1Crewe
- Accrington Stanley0-0Crewe
- Crewe3-3Accrington Stanley
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Crewe 1494 · Accrington Stanley 1495
| Crewe | Draw | Accrington Stanley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Crewe | Accrington Stanley | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.9 | 1.9 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0 | 1.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Crewe 2–2–2 Accrington Stanley
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Crewe |
| 09/08/25 England League 2 | Crewe | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Accrington Stanley |
| 25/01/25 England League 2 | Crewe | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Accrington Stanley |
| 14/09/24 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Crewe |
| 06/04/24 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Crewe |
| 16/12/23 England League 2 | Crewe | 3-3 HT 2-1 | Accrington Stanley |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Crewe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Chester UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | Birmingham UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 21/07 | AFC Telford UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Stoke UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 11/07 | Witton Albion UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 3-2 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Cambridge Utd England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Milton Keynes Dons England League 2 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 06/04 | Salford City England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
Accrington Stanley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Sheff Wed UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 28/07 | Bury UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Chorley UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 3-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 17/07 | Bradford UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Blackburn UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Swindon England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 14/04 | Colchester England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Crewe vs Accrington Stanley?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Crewe win (50%). Probabilities: Crewe 50%, draw 26%, Accrington Stanley 24%.
How many goals are expected in Crewe vs Accrington Stanley?
The model expects 2.8 goals (Crewe 1.7 · Accrington Stanley 1.1), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Accrington Stanley?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.