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Football · England EFL Cup · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.01Total
AFC Wimbledon1.91
Newport County1.09
1X2
55% 24% 20%
AFC Wimbledon Draw Newport County
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
AFC Wimbledon 3-1-6 (W-D-L)
LLLWLWDWLL
Newport County 5-0-5 (W-D-L)
LLWLWWWWLL
Head-to-head
AFC Wimbledon 1–4–1 Newport County (6 last)
  • Newport County1-2AFC Wimbledon
  • AFC Wimbledon2-2Newport County
  • AFC Wimbledon0-2Newport County
  • Newport County2-2AFC Wimbledon
  • Newport County1-1AFC Wimbledon
  • AFC Wimbledon1-1Newport County
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Wimbledon 1449 · Newport County 1504
AFC WimbledonDrawNewport County
Our model55%24%20%
Market55%24%20%
Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newport County (rating 1449 vs 1504).
  • Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

AFC WimbledonNewport County
Goals for / against (FT)0.8 / 1.51.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)0.1 / 0.40.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)10/50/40%20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)1.3 / 4.32 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)2.4 / 03.8 / 0.2

Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Wimbledon 1–4–1 Newport County

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DateHomeScoreAway
02/01/25
England League 2
Newport County1-2
HT 0-0
AFC Wimbledon
03/12/24
England League 2
AFC Wimbledon2-2
HT 2-1
Newport County
16/03/24
England League 2
AFC Wimbledon0-2
HT 0-1
Newport County
02/09/23
England League 2
Newport County2-2
HT 1-2
AFC Wimbledon
14/03/23
England League 2
Newport County1-1
HT 0-1
AFC Wimbledon
26/12/22
England League 2
AFC Wimbledon1-1
HT 0-0
Newport County

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Wimbledon

LLLWLWDWLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
01/08 QPR
UK Friendlies
 0-1 2-3 50 L
28/07 Wealdstone
UK Friendlies
 0-1 0-1 61 L
25/07 Charlton
UK Friendlies
 1-0 2-0 42 W
22/07 Norwich
UK Friendlies
 0-0 0-0 00 D
18/07 Sutton Utd
UK Friendlies
 0-0 2-1 60 W
02/05 Huddersfield
England League 1
 0-1 0-4 53 L
25/04 Wigan
England League 1
 0-0 1-0 37 W
18/04 Plymouth
England League 1
 0-1 1-3 55 L
15/04 Stockport
England League 1
 0-0 0-2 75 L
11/04 Burton Albion
England League 1
 0-0 0-1 21 L

Newport County

LLWLWWWWLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
28/07 Reading
UK Friendlies
 0-1 0-4 85 L
11/07 Gloucester
UK Friendlies
 1-0 1-2 55 L
08/07 Newport City FC
UK Friendlies
 2-0 5-0 50 W
04/07 Bristol Manor Farm
Club Friendly List
 0-0 3-0 –– W
02/05 Barrow
England League 2
 0-1 2-1 43 W
25/04 Oldham
England League 2
 1-2 3-2 65 W
18/04 Cheltenham
England League 2
 0-0 0-1 75 L
11/04 Harrogate Town
England League 2
 1-1 2-1 83 W
06/04 Notts County
England League 2
 0-2 1-3 44 L
03/04 Crawley Town
England League 2
 0-0 0-2 76 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Wimbledon win (55%). Probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 55%, draw 24%, Newport County 20%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County?

The model expects 3.01 goals (AFC Wimbledon 1.91 · Newport County 1.09), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.