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Football · England EFL Cup · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Swansea vs Birmingham

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
Swansea1.21
Birmingham1.42
1X2
32% 27% 42%
Swansea Draw Birmingham
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Swansea 5-3-2 (W-D-L)
DWLWDWDLWW
Birmingham 7-3-0 (W-D-L)
DWWDWWWWWD
Head-to-head
Swansea 0–4–2 Birmingham (6 last)
  • Swansea1-1Birmingham
  • Birmingham1-0Swansea
  • Birmingham2-2Swansea
  • Swansea1-1Birmingham
  • Swansea3-4Birmingham
  • Birmingham2-2Swansea
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Swansea 1522 · Birmingham 1604
SwanseaDrawBirmingham
Our model31%28%41%
Market32%25%42%
Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birmingham (rating 1522 vs 1604).
  • H2H favours Birmingham: 2-4-0.
  • Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

SwanseaBirmingham
Goals for / against (FT)1.5 / 1.11.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)0.8 / 0.41.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)60/30/10%60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)1.7 / 3.91.7 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.7 / 02.2 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Swansea 0–4–2 Birmingham

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DateHomeScoreAway
17/01/26
England Championship
Swansea1-1
HT 1-0
Birmingham
20/09/25
England Championship
Birmingham1-0
HT 0-0
Swansea
13/01/24
England Championship
Birmingham2-2
HT 1-1
Swansea
05/08/23
England Championship
Swansea1-1
HT 0-1
Birmingham
04/02/23
England Championship
Swansea3-4
HT 2-1
Birmingham
08/11/22
England Championship
Birmingham2-2
HT 1-2
Swansea

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Swansea

DWLWDWDLWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
01/08 Leganes
Europe Friendlies
 1-0 1-0 33 W
24/07 Udinese
Europe Friendlies
 1-0 2-0 20 W
21/07 Bochum
Europe Friendlies
 0-2 0-2 –– L
18/07 Holstein Kiel
Europe Friendlies
 2-1 2-2 55 D
02/05 Charlton
England Championship
 0-0 3-1 100 W
25/04 Norwich
England Championship
 0-0 1-1 28 D
21/04 QPR
England Championship
 1-0 2-1 54 W
18/04 Southampton
England Championship
 1-0 1-2 45 L
11/04 Leicester
England Championship
 0-0 1-0 22 W
06/04 Middlesbrough
England Championship
 2-1 2-2 26 D

Birmingham

DWWDWWWWWD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
31/07 Barcelona
Elite Club Friendlies
 1-1 2-2 33 D
25/07 Northampton
Club Friendly List
 2-0 2-0 –– W
25/07 Crewe
UK Friendlies
 1-1 2-1 00 W
22/07 Burton Albion
UK Friendlies
 1-0 1-0 20 W
15/07 Solihull Moors
UK Friendlies
 1-0 3-0 30 W
10/07 Huddersfield
UK Friendlies
 1-0 3-1 20 W
02/05 Portsmouth
England Championship
 1-1 1-1 94 D
25/04 Bristol City
England Championship
 2-0 2-1 64 W
22/04 Preston
England Championship
 2-1 2-1 32 W
18/04 Hull
England Championship
 0-1 1-1 67 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Swansea vs Birmingham?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Birmingham win (42%). Probabilities: Swansea 32%, draw 27%, Birmingham 42%.

How many goals are expected in Swansea vs Birmingham?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Swansea 1.21 · Birmingham 1.42), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Swansea vs Birmingham?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.