Football · England EFL Cup · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Norwich vs Milton Keynes Dons
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.75Total
Norwich1.8
Milton Keynes Dons0.95
1X2
Norwich
Draw
Milton Keynes Dons
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Norwich
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Milton Keynes Dons
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Norwich 1511 · Milton Keynes Dons 1539
| Norwich | Draw | Milton Keynes Dons | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 25% | 18% |
| Market | 57% | 23% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Norwich | Milton Keynes Dons | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 1.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 6.4 | 2.2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 1.1 / 0.1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Norwich
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Osasuna Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 22/07 | AFC Wimbledon UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 17/07 | St Gallen Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Colchester Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 04/07 | Kings Lynn Town Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Hull England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Swansea England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 21/04 | Derby England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-1 | 4-2 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Ipswich England Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 13 | 10 | L |
Milton Keynes Dons
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Cheltenham UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 28/07 | Barnet UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 25/07 | Wealdstone UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 22/07 | Tottenham Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 17/07 | Istra 1961 Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 10/07 | Maidenhead Utd UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 25/04 | Tranmere England League 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Crewe England League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Bromley England League 2 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Norwich vs Milton Keynes Dons?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Norwich win (57%). Probabilities: Norwich 57%, draw 24%, Milton Keynes Dons 19%.
How many goals are expected in Norwich vs Milton Keynes Dons?
The model expects 2.75 goals (Norwich 1.8 · Milton Keynes Dons 0.95), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Milton Keynes Dons?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.