Football · England EFL Cup · 08/08, 15:00
Prediction: QPR vs Millwall
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
QPR1.26
Millwall1.5
1X2
QPR
Draw
Millwall
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
QPR
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Millwall
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
QPR
1–1–4
Millwall
(6 last)
- Millwall2-0QPR
- QPR1-2Millwall
- Millwall2-1QPR
- QPR1-1Millwall
- QPR2-0Millwall
- Millwall2-0QPR
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · QPR 1524 · Millwall 1520
| QPR | Draw | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 28% | 42% |
| Market | 31% | 26% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Millwall: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| QPR | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.5 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.5 | 4.1 / 7.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0 | 2.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · QPR 1–1–4 Millwall
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 England Championship | Millwall | 2-0 HT 2-0 | QPR |
| 18/10/25 England Championship | QPR | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Millwall |
| 01/02/25 England Championship | Millwall | 2-1 HT 2-1 | QPR |
| 21/09/24 England Championship | QPR | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Millwall |
| 20/01/24 England Championship | QPR | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Millwall |
| 26/12/23 England Championship | Millwall | 2-0 HT 1-0 | QPR |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
QPR
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | AFC Wimbledon UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 31/07 | Bromley UK Friendlies |
3-0 | 7-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Fiorentina Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 21/07 | Wycombe UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 16/07 | Wiener Neustadt Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | First Vienna FC 1894 Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Ipswich England Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Derby England Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 21/04 | Swansea England Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Millwall England Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
Millwall
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Antwerp Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 28/07 | Bromley UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 0 | D |
| 25/07 | Stevenage UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 21/07 | Gillingham UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 17/07 | Eldense Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 14/07 | FC Andorra Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 11/05 | Hull England Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Hull England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Oxford Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 14 | 1 | W |
| 24/04 | Leicester England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in QPR vs Millwall?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Millwall win (42%). Probabilities: QPR 31%, draw 27%, Millwall 42%.
How many goals are expected in QPR vs Millwall?
The model expects 2.76 goals (QPR 1.26 · Millwall 1.5), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Millwall?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.