Football · England EFL Cup · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Stoke vs Oldham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.21Total
Stoke2.2
Oldham1
1X2
Stoke
Draw
Oldham
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Stoke
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Oldham
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stoke 1437 · Oldham 1467
| Stoke | Draw | Oldham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Market | 65% | 18% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stoke | Oldham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.6 | 1.7 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 7.2 | 2.4 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0.2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stoke
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Valencia Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 28/07 | Everton Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Crewe UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 10/07 | Braga Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 15 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Portsmouth England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 21/04 | Millwall England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 06/04 | Derby England Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
Oldham
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Sheff Wed UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 28/07 | Stockport UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 21/07 | Bolton UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Newport County England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 14/04 | Barrow England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 11/04 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 06/04 | Milton Keynes Dons England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 03/04 | Colchester England League 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stoke vs Oldham?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stoke win (65%). Probabilities: Stoke 65%, draw 20%, Oldham 16%.
How many goals are expected in Stoke vs Oldham?
The model expects 3.21 goals (Stoke 2.2 · Oldham 1), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Stoke vs Oldham?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.