Football · England EFL Cup · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Sheff Wed vs Bolton
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Sheff Wed1.21
Bolton1.66
1X2
Sheff Wed
Draw
Bolton
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sheff Wed
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Bolton
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sheff Wed
3–3–0
Bolton
(6 last)
- Bolton3-3Sheff Wed
- Sheff Wed1-1Bolton
- Bolton0-2Sheff Wed
- Bolton1-1Sheff Wed
- Sheff Wed1-0Bolton
- Bolton0-2Sheff Wed
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sheff Wed 1457 · Bolton 1537
| Sheff Wed | Draw | Bolton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 27% | 47% |
| Market | 28% | 24% | 48% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bolton (rating 1457 vs 1537).
- H2H favours Sheff Wed: 3-3-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sheff Wed | Bolton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.9 | 2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 2.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sheff Wed 3–3–0 Bolton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/25 England EFL Cup | Bolton | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Sheff Wed |
| 17/03/23 England League 1 | Sheff Wed | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Bolton |
| 20/08/22 England League 1 | Bolton | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Sheff Wed |
| 09/04/22 England League 1 | Bolton | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Sheff Wed |
| 09/10/21 England League 1 | Sheff Wed | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Bolton |
| 12/03/19 England Championship | Bolton | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Sheff Wed |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sheff Wed
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Oldham UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-4 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 01/08 | Accrington Stanley UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 14/07 | Hallam Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 11/07 | West Brom Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | West Brom England Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Oxford Utd England Championship |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 22/04 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Charlton England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | Coventry England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 06/04 | Leicester England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
Bolton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | NAC Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/07 | Fleetwood Town UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 25/07 | Everton Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 21/07 | Oldham UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 17/07 | Dunajska Streda Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Stockport England League 1 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 14/05 | Bradford England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Bradford England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Luton England League 1 |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | Bradford England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sheff Wed vs Bolton?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bolton win (48%). Probabilities: Sheff Wed 28%, draw 25%, Bolton 48%.
How many goals are expected in Sheff Wed vs Bolton?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Sheff Wed 1.21 · Bolton 1.66), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Sheff Wed vs Bolton?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.