Football · England EFL Cup · 07/08, 21:00
Prediction: Middlesbrough vs Wrexham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3Total
Middlesbrough1.83
Wrexham1.18
1X2
Middlesbrough
Draw
Wrexham
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Middlesbrough
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Wrexham
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Middlesbrough
0–2–0
Wrexham
(2 last)
- Wrexham2-2Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough1-1Wrexham
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Middlesbrough 1506 · Wrexham 1510
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 25% | 23% |
| Market | 52% | 24% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Middlesbrough | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/80/0% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.3 | 1.3 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 1.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Middlesbrough 0–2–0 Wrexham
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 England Championship | Wrexham | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Middlesbrough |
| 25/10/25 England Championship | Middlesbrough | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Wrexham |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Middlesbrough
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Espanyol Europe Friendlies |
2-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 18/07 | Celtic UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 23/05 | Hull England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 12/05 | Southampton England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 09/05 | Southampton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Wrexham England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 25/04 | Watford England Championship |
2-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 22/04 | Sheff Wed England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Ipswich England Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | Portsmouth England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 14 | 4 | L |
Wrexham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Liverpool Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 26/07 | Leeds Elite Club Friendlies |
2-2 | 3-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Man Utd Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | Wisla Krakow Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 26/04 | Coventry England Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 21/04 | Oxford Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Stoke England Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 12/04 | Birmingham England Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 07/04 | Southampton England Championship |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Middlesbrough vs Wrexham?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Middlesbrough win (52%). Probabilities: Middlesbrough 52%, draw 25%, Wrexham 24%.
How many goals are expected in Middlesbrough vs Wrexham?
The model expects 3 goals (Middlesbrough 1.83 · Wrexham 1.18), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Wrexham?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.