Football · Brazil Copa Rio · 15/07, 19:45
Prediction: Olaria AC vs Bangu
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.51Total
Olaria AC1.35
Bangu1.17
1X2
Olaria AC
Draw
Bangu
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Olaria AC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Bangu
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Olaria AC
0–1
Bangu
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Olaria AC 1510 · Bangu 1498
| Olaria AC | Draw | Bangu | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Market | 39% | 30% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Olaria AC | Bangu | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6.6 | 1.3 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Olaria AC 0–0–1 Bangu
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 | Olaria AC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Bangu |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Olaria AC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 27/06 | Araruama FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 23/06 | Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Copa Rio |
2-0 | 4-0 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 20/06 | Cabofriense Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/06 | Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Copa Rio |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | America RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | Sao Goncalo Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 27/05 | Marica RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Perolas Negras Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
Bangu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03 | Botafogo Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
0-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 28/02 | Volta Redonda Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 21/02 | Volta Redonda Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 16/02 | Fluminense Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
0-2 | 1-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 08/02 | Boavista RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 31/01 | Nova Iguacu Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 25/01 | Botafogo Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 21/01 | Marica RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 17/01 | Madureira RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 15/01 | Flamengo Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Olaria AC vs Bangu?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Olaria AC win (40%). Probabilities: Olaria AC 40%, draw 29%, Bangu 31%.
How many goals are expected in Olaria AC vs Bangu?
The model expects 2.51 goals (Olaria AC 1.35 · Bangu 1.17), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Olaria AC vs Bangu?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.