Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 05/09, 17:00

Prediction: OFK Mladost DG vs FK Decic Tuzi

Team pages: OFK Mladost DG · FK Decic Tuzi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

OFK Mladost DG1.09

FK Decic Tuzi1.63

1X2

24% 27% 48%

OFK Mladost DG Draw FK Decic Tuzi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

OFK Mladost DG 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWLLDL

FK Decic Tuzi 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLLDWWWW

Head-to-head

OFK Mladost DG 2–4 FK Decic Tuzi (6 last)

OFK Mladost DG2-1FK Decic Tuzi
FK Decic Tuzi3-4OFK Mladost DG
OFK Mladost DG1-2FK Decic Tuzi
FK Decic Tuzi3-2OFK Mladost DG
FK Decic Tuzi2-0OFK Mladost DG
OFK Mladost DG0-3FK Decic Tuzi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · OFK Mladost DG 1476 · FK Decic Tuzi 1537

	OFK Mladost DG	Draw	FK Decic Tuzi
Our model	24%	27%	49%
Market	24%	28%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Decic Tuzi (rating 1476 vs 1537).
H2H favours FK Decic Tuzi: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	OFK Mladost DG	FK Decic Tuzi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.8	2.2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.75

X3.20

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.75▲	Pinn 3.77
X	3.10 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20
2	2.05 → 1.85▼	Pinn 1.98 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:00 +11’	3.25	3.10	2.05
16:12 +18’	3.75▲	3.20▲	1.85▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:28 +1’	3.77	3.11	1.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · OFK Mladost DG 2–0–4 FK Decic Tuzi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/04/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Mladost DG	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Decic Tuzi
10/12/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Decic Tuzi	3-4 HT 0-2	OFK Mladost DG
01/10/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Mladost DG	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Decic Tuzi
04/08/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Decic Tuzi	3-2 HT 2-0	OFK Mladost DG
21/04/24 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Decic Tuzi	2-0 HT 0-0	OFK Mladost DG
28/02/24 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Mladost DG	0-3 HT 0-1	FK Decic Tuzi

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Decic Tuzi	5	4	1	0	8	1	13
2	FK Mornar Bar	6	3	3	0	8	4	12
3	FK Bokelj	6	2	2	2	2	3	8
4	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	5	2	1	2	7	7	7
5	OFK Petrovac	5	1	3	1	4	2	6
6	Buducnost Podgorica	5	1	2	2	2	4	5
7	FK Jezero	5	1	2	2	2	5	5
8	Sutjeska Niksic	5	1	1	3	6	7	4
9	FK Arsenal	5	0	4	1	1	2	4
10	OFK Mladost DG	5	1	1	3	5	10	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	OFK Mladost DG	FK Decic Tuzi
Sutjeska Niksic	1-5 L	0-3 L
OFK Petrovac	0-0 D	1-1 D
FK Jezero	0-1 L	2-1 W
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	2-1 W	3-0 W
FK Arsenal	4-1 W	0-0 D
Buducnost Podgorica	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Decic Tuzi (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

OFK Mladost DG

WWDLWWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-2	1-5	6	3	L
22/08	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
16/08	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	2-3	10	2	L
09/08	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
02/08	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
24/05	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	3-0	4-1	3	5	W
20/05	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
16/05	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	2-0	2-2	4	5	D
10/05	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
02/05	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	4	4	W

FK Decic Tuzi

DWLLLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
23/08	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
17/08	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
08/08	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
02/08	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
24/05	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	1	0	L
20/05	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	5	1	L
16/05	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
10/05	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
02/05	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in OFK Mladost DG vs FK Decic Tuzi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Decic Tuzi win (48%). Probabilities: OFK Mladost DG 24%, draw 27%, FK Decic Tuzi 48%.

How many goals are expected in OFK Mladost DG vs FK Decic Tuzi?

The model expects 2.72 goals (OFK Mladost DG 1.09 · FK Decic Tuzi 1.63), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in OFK Mladost DG vs FK Decic Tuzi?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.