Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 09/08, 20:00

Prediction: FK Bokelj vs Sutjeska Niksic

Team pages: FK Bokelj · Sutjeska Niksic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

FK Bokelj1.22

Sutjeska Niksic1.43

1X2

30% 29% 40%

FK Bokelj Draw Sutjeska Niksic

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Bokelj 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LDWLWDWWWW

Sutjeska Niksic 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

FK Bokelj 0–6 Sutjeska Niksic (6 last)

FK Bokelj2-3Sutjeska Niksic
Sutjeska Niksic2-1FK Bokelj
Sutjeska Niksic1-0FK Bokelj
FK Bokelj4-5Sutjeska Niksic
Sutjeska Niksic5-2FK Bokelj
Sutjeska Niksic1-0FK Bokelj

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Bokelj 1531 · Sutjeska Niksic 1438

	FK Bokelj	Draw	Sutjeska Niksic
Our model	31%	28%	41%
Market	30%	30%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Bokelj (rating 1531 vs 1438).
H2H favours Sutjeska Niksic: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Bokelj	Sutjeska Niksic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.6	0.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 4.8	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.00

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.19
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.40 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
10:05 +7’	3.00	3.00	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:10 +2’	3.20	2.76	2.40
23:25 +2’	3.19▼	2.77▲	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Bokelj 0–0–6 Sutjeska Niksic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Bokelj	2-3 HT 1-1	Sutjeska Niksic
07/03/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	Sutjeska Niksic	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Bokelj
31/01/26 Europe Friendlies	Sutjeska Niksic	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Bokelj
01/11/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Bokelj	4-5 HT 2-1	Sutjeska Niksic
30/08/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	Sutjeska Niksic	5-2 HT 3-0	FK Bokelj
04/05/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	Sutjeska Niksic	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Bokelj

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	OFK Mladost DG	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
2	FK Bokelj	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
2	Buducnost Podgorica	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
4	FK Arsenal	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
4	FK Mornar Bar	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
6	FK Decic Tuzi	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
6	FK Jezero	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
8	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
9	Sutjeska Niksic	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
9	OFK Petrovac	1	0	0	1	0	1	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Bokelj	Sutjeska Niksic
Buducnost Podgorica	1-2 L	0-1 L
FK Mornar Bar	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Bokelj (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Bokelj

LDWLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
19/07	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
08/07	FK Arsenal Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-1	1	2	W
03/06	FK Grbalj Radanovici Montenegro Prva Liga Play-Offs	1-0	2-0	9	2	W
29/05	FK Grbalj Radanovici Montenegro Prva Liga Play-Offs	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
24/05	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	9	0	W
20/05	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	1-2	1-2	3	5	L
16/05	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
10/05	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
02/05	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	2-3	1	2	L

Sutjeska Niksic

WLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
30/07	FC ML Vitebsk UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
23/07	FC ML Vitebsk UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-2	0-3	7	3	L
15/07	Kairat Almaty UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
08/07	Kairat Almaty UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-0	1-2	1	4	L
01/07	FK Sarajevo Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
24/06	FK Mornar Bar Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
23/06	Borac Banja Luka Club Friendly List	0-0	0-1	1	0	L
24/05	FK Jedinstvo Bijelo Polje Montenegro Prva Liga	0-3	1-3	–	–	L
20/05	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	2	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Bokelj vs Sutjeska Niksic?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sutjeska Niksic win (40%). Probabilities: FK Bokelj 30%, draw 29%, Sutjeska Niksic 40%.

How many goals are expected in FK Bokelj vs Sutjeska Niksic?

The model expects 2.65 goals (FK Bokelj 1.22 · Sutjeska Niksic 1.43), with a 60% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Bokelj vs Sutjeska Niksic?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.