Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 16/08, 20:00

Prediction: OFK Mladost DG vs FK Mornar Bar

Team pages: OFK Mladost DG · FK Mornar Bar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.09Total

OFK Mladost DG0.9

FK Mornar Bar1.19

1X2

27% 31% 42%

OFK Mladost DG Draw FK Mornar Bar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

OFK Mladost DG 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLDLDWL

FK Mornar Bar 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDLLDD

Head-to-head

OFK Mladost DG 0–6 FK Mornar Bar (6 last)

OFK Mladost DG1-2FK Mornar Bar
FK Mornar Bar3-0OFK Mladost DG
OFK Mladost DG1-3FK Mornar Bar
FK Mornar Bar2-1OFK Mladost DG
FK Mornar Bar5-1OFK Mladost DG
OFK Mladost DG1-2FK Mornar Bar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · OFK Mladost DG 1456 · FK Mornar Bar 1558

	OFK Mladost DG	Draw	FK Mornar Bar
Our model	27%	32%	41%
Market	28%	30%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Mornar Bar (rating 1456 vs 1558).
H2H favours FK Mornar Bar: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	OFK Mladost DG	FK Mornar Bar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	0.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	2.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.00

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.46 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.21

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:46 +6’	3.20	3.00	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:18	3.38	2.80	2.18
10:39	3.46▲	2.86▲	2.21▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · OFK Mladost DG 0–0–6 FK Mornar Bar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Mladost DG	1-2 HT 1-2	FK Mornar Bar
01/03/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Mornar Bar	3-0 HT 0-0	OFK Mladost DG
26/10/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Mladost DG	1-3 HT 0-2	FK Mornar Bar
24/08/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Mornar Bar	2-1 HT 1-1	OFK Mladost DG
13/04/24 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Mornar Bar	5-1 HT 2-1	OFK Mladost DG
24/02/24 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Mladost DG	1-2 HT 0-0	FK Mornar Bar

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bokelj	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
2	FK Decic Tuzi	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
3	FK Jezero	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
4	OFK Mladost DG	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
5	Buducnost Podgorica	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
6	FK Arsenal	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
6	FK Mornar Bar	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
8	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
9	OFK Petrovac	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
10	Sutjeska Niksic	2	0	0	2	0	2	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	OFK Mladost DG	FK Mornar Bar
FK Jezero	0-1 L	0-0 D
FK Arsenal	0-1 L	0-0 D
Sutjeska Niksic	0-1 L	1-0 W
OFK Petrovac	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Mornar Bar (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

OFK Mladost DG

WDLWLDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
02/08	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
26/07	FK Lovcen Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
19/07	Smederevo Europe Friendlies	2-1	2-4	1	0	L
17/07	FK Vozdovac Club Friendly List	0-0	3-3	5	2	D
01/07	FK Arsenal Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
24/05	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	3-0	4-1	3	5	W
20/05	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
16/05	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	2-0	2-2	4	5	D
10/05	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	6	5	W

FK Mornar Bar

DWWWWDLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
02/08	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
16/07	AC d'Escaldes UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
09/07	AC d'Escaldes UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
01/07	OFK Petrovac Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
01/07	FK Zemun Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
24/06	Sutjeska Niksic Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
28/05	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Cup	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
24/05	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	7	1	W
20/05	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in OFK Mladost DG vs FK Mornar Bar?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Mornar Bar win (42%). Probabilities: OFK Mladost DG 27%, draw 31%, FK Mornar Bar 42%.

How many goals are expected in OFK Mladost DG vs FK Mornar Bar?

The model expects 2.09 goals (OFK Mladost DG 0.9 · FK Mornar Bar 1.19), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in OFK Mladost DG vs FK Mornar Bar?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.