Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 16/08, 20:00

Prediction: FK Arsenal vs Buducnost Podgorica

Team pages: FK Arsenal · Buducnost Podgorica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

FK Arsenal0.93

Buducnost Podgorica1.34

1X2

25% 29% 45%

FK Arsenal Draw Buducnost Podgorica

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Arsenal 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLLWDD

Buducnost Podgorica 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDWLLWWL

Head-to-head

FK Arsenal 3–3 Buducnost Podgorica (6 last)

Buducnost Podgorica4-1FK Arsenal
Buducnost Podgorica0-2FK Arsenal
FK Arsenal1-0Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica4-2FK Arsenal
FK Arsenal1-0Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica5-0FK Arsenal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Arsenal 1481 · Buducnost Podgorica 1491

	FK Arsenal	Draw	Buducnost Podgorica
Our model	25%	30%	45%
Market	25%	29%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Arsenal	Buducnost Podgorica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.3	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/67/33%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.4	1.4 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.10

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.41 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:38 +14’	3.50	3.10	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:39	3.33	2.66	2.41

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Arsenal 3–0–3 Buducnost Podgorica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Europe Friendlies	Buducnost Podgorica	4-1 HT 1-1	FK Arsenal
18/04/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	Buducnost Podgorica	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Arsenal
25/02/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Arsenal	1-0 HT 0-0	Buducnost Podgorica
18/10/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	Buducnost Podgorica	4-2 HT 1-1	FK Arsenal
17/08/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Arsenal	1-0 HT 0-0	Buducnost Podgorica
20/04/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	Buducnost Podgorica	5-0 HT 1-0	FK Arsenal

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bokelj	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
2	FK Decic Tuzi	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
3	FK Jezero	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
4	OFK Mladost DG	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
5	Buducnost Podgorica	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
6	FK Arsenal	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
6	FK Mornar Bar	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
8	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
9	OFK Petrovac	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
10	Sutjeska Niksic	2	0	0	2	0	2	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Arsenal	Buducnost Podgorica
FK Mornar Bar	0-0 D	0-0 D
FK Decic Tuzi	0-0 D	0-2 L
FK Bokelj	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Arsenal

WLLWLLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
02/08	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
25/07	Leotar Club Friendly List	–	4-1	–	–	W
16/07	Zrinjski Mostar Europe Friendlies	0-4	0-6	2	3	L
08/07	FK Bokelj Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-3	2	2	L
04/07	FK Decic Tuzi Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
01/07	OFK Mladost DG Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	1	0	W
27/06	Buducnost Podgorica Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-4	0	1	L
24/05	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-3	1-4	3	5	L
20/05	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	2-1	6	1	W

Buducnost Podgorica

DDWDWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
03/08	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
09/07	OFK Beograd Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
07/07	FK Radnicki 1923 Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-3	0	8	L
04/07	FK Radnik Surdulica Europe Friendlies	1-2	1-3	1	1	L
27/06	FK Arsenal Europe Friendlies	1-1	4-1	3	1	W
24/05	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	1	8	D
20/05	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	2-1	2-1	5	5	W
16/05	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
10/05	FK Jedinstvo Bijelo Polje Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	7	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Arsenal vs Buducnost Podgorica?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Buducnost Podgorica win (45%). Probabilities: FK Arsenal 25%, draw 29%, Buducnost Podgorica 45%.

How many goals are expected in FK Arsenal vs Buducnost Podgorica?

The model expects 2.28 goals (FK Arsenal 0.93 · Buducnost Podgorica 1.34), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Arsenal vs Buducnost Podgorica?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.