Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 09/08, 20:00

Prediction: Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj vs OFK Petrovac

Team pages: Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj · OFK Petrovac

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.08Total

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj1.01

OFK Petrovac1.07

1X2

33% 31% 36%

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Draw OFK Petrovac

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWWLWL

OFK Petrovac 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDDDDLLL

Head-to-head

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 1–1–3 OFK Petrovac (5 last)

OFK Petrovac2-2Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj2-1OFK Petrovac
OFK Petrovac2-1Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj0-1OFK Petrovac
OFK Petrovac3-2Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 1533 · OFK Petrovac 1462

	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	Draw	OFK Petrovac
Our model	32%	33%	35%
Market	33%	30%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj (rating 1533 vs 1462).
H2H favours OFK Petrovac: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	OFK Petrovac
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	0.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 4.7	2.2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.00

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.70▲	Pinn 2.75
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.55 → 2.45▼	Pinn 2.67 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
09:58 +14’	2.55	3.00	2.55
20:27 +18’	2.70▲	3.00	2.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:10 +2’	2.80	2.83	2.63
00:38	2.75▼	2.83	2.67▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 1–1–3 OFK Petrovac

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/11/25 Montenegro Cup	OFK Petrovac	2-2 HT 2-1	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
12/04/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	2-1 HT 0-1	OFK Petrovac
22/02/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Petrovac	2-1 HT 0-1	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
06/10/24 Montenegro Prva Liga	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	0-1 HT 0-0	OFK Petrovac
11/08/24 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Petrovac	3-2 HT 0-1	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	OFK Mladost DG	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
2	FK Bokelj	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
2	Buducnost Podgorica	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
4	FK Arsenal	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
4	FK Mornar Bar	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
6	FK Decic Tuzi	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
6	FK Jezero	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
8	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
9	Sutjeska Niksic	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
9	OFK Petrovac	1	0	0	1	0	1	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	OFK Petrovac
OFK Mladost DG	1-2 L	0-1 L
FK Bokelj	0-1 L	0-1 L
FK Decic Tuzi	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: OFK Petrovac (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

WWLWDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-2	6	5	L
25/07	Vllaznia Shkoder Club Friendly List	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
19/07	FK Bokelj Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
24/05	FK Kom Podgorica Montenegro Druga Liga	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
20/05	FK Grbalj Radanovici Montenegro Druga Liga	2-2	4-2	3	4	W
16/05	FK Iskra Danilovgrad Montenegro Druga Liga	0-1	2-2	2	5	D
10/05	FK Podgorica Montenegro Druga Liga	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
06/05	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Cup	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
02/05	OFK Igalo Montenegro Druga Liga	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
26/04	FK Lovcen Montenegro Druga Liga	2-0	2-1	5	5	W

OFK Petrovac

DLWDDDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
16/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-2	5	2	L
09/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
01/07	FK Mornar Bar Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
27/06	FK Macva Sabac Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
24/05	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
20/05	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/05	FK Jedinstvo Bijelo Polje Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
10/05	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
02/05	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj vs OFK Petrovac?

According to our model, the most likely result is an OFK Petrovac win (36%). Probabilities: Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 33%, draw 31%, OFK Petrovac 36%.

How many goals are expected in Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj vs OFK Petrovac?

The model expects 2.08 goals (Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 1.01 · OFK Petrovac 1.07), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj vs OFK Petrovac?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.