Football · Brazil Copa Rio · 15/07, 19:45
Prediction: Americano RJ vs Portuguesa RJ
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
Americano RJ1.26
Portuguesa RJ1.55
1X2
Americano RJ
Draw
Portuguesa RJ
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Americano RJ
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Portuguesa RJ
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Americano RJ
1–1
Portuguesa RJ
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Americano RJ 1581 · Portuguesa RJ 1491
| Americano RJ | Draw | Portuguesa RJ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Market | 29% | 29% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Americano RJ (rating 1581 vs 1491).
- Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Americano RJ | Portuguesa RJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6 | 2.3 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 6.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Americano RJ 1–0–1 Portuguesa RJ
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/12/19 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Portuguesa RJ | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Americano RJ |
| 20/01/19 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Portuguesa RJ | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Americano RJ |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Americano RJ
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | America RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | Marica RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 23/06 | Macae Esporte FC Brazil Copa Rio |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 20/06 | Perolas Negras Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 17/06 | Macae Esporte FC Brazil Copa Rio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | Cabofriense Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 30/05 | Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
Portuguesa RJ
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 04/07 | Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 28/06 | Noroeste Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 21/06 | Noroeste Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | Portuguesa Desportos Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 31/05 | America RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 6 | D |
| 23/05 | Madureira RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Pouso Alegre Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 02/05 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Americano RJ vs Portuguesa RJ?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Portuguesa RJ win (42%). Probabilities: Americano RJ 29%, draw 28%, Portuguesa RJ 42%.
How many goals are expected in Americano RJ vs Portuguesa RJ?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Americano RJ 1.26 · Portuguesa RJ 1.55), with a 60% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Americano RJ vs Portuguesa RJ?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.