Football · Brazil Copa Rio · 15/07, 19:45
Prediction: Bonsucesso FC vs Madureira RJ
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Bonsucesso FC1.23
Madureira RJ1.53
1X2
Bonsucesso FC
Draw
Madureira RJ
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Bonsucesso FC
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Madureira RJ
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bonsucesso FC
1–2–0
Madureira RJ
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bonsucesso FC 1507 · Madureira RJ 1493
| Bonsucesso FC | Draw | Madureira RJ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| Market | 29% | 28% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bonsucesso FC | Madureira RJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1 | 1.1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.8 | 1.7 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.9 | 5.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bonsucesso FC 1–2–0 Madureira RJ
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/24 Brazil Copa Rio | Madureira RJ | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Bonsucesso FC |
| 21/08/24 Brazil Copa Rio | Bonsucesso FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Madureira RJ |
| 25/03/15 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Madureira RJ | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Bonsucesso FC |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bonsucesso FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Olaria AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 01/07 | America RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/06 | Cabofriense Brazil Copa Rio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 20/06 | Sao Goncalo Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 17/06 | Cabofriense Brazil Copa Rio |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 10/06 | Marica RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Perolas Negras Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
3-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 23/05 | Americano RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 10 | L |
Madureira RJ
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06 | Pouso Alegre Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 30/05 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | America RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Portuguesa Desportos Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Portuguesa Desportos Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | America RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 12 | L |
| 19/04 | Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 12 | D |
| 11/04 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D |
3-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 04/04 | Pouso Alegre Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bonsucesso FC vs Madureira RJ?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Madureira RJ win (43%). Probabilities: Bonsucesso FC 29%, draw 28%, Madureira RJ 43%.
How many goals are expected in Bonsucesso FC vs Madureira RJ?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Bonsucesso FC 1.23 · Madureira RJ 1.53), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Bonsucesso FC vs Madureira RJ?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.