Football · Brazil Copa Rio · 15/07, 19:45
Prediction: America RJ vs Nova Iguacu
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.45Total
America RJ1.12
Nova Iguacu1.33
1X2
America RJ
Draw
Nova Iguacu
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
America RJ
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Nova Iguacu
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
America RJ
1–3–2
Nova Iguacu
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · America RJ 1502 · Nova Iguacu 1488
| America RJ | Draw | Nova Iguacu | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Market | 31% | 28% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Nova Iguacu: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| America RJ | Nova Iguacu | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.6 | 1.6 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.1 | 5.5 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · America RJ 1–3–2 Nova Iguacu
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/21 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Nova Iguacu | 1-0 HT 0-0 | America RJ |
| 23/01/21 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | America RJ | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Nova Iguacu |
| 04/07/20 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | America RJ | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Nova Iguacu |
| 07/03/20 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Nova Iguacu | 0-2 HT 0-1 | America RJ |
| 19/02/20 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Nova Iguacu | 2-2 HT 1-1 | America RJ |
| 05/02/20 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | America RJ | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Nova Iguacu |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
America RJ
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Americano RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 01/07 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 24/06 | Araruama FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 20/06 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 13/06 | Olaria AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 10/06 | Cabofriense Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 03/06 | Sao Goncalo Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
Nova Iguacu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Fluminense America Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-6 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 07/06 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Marica RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Noroeste Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 13 | W |
| 10/05 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 03/05 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Noroeste Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 12/04 | Marica RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in America RJ vs Nova Iguacu?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Nova Iguacu win (41%). Probabilities: America RJ 31%, draw 29%, Nova Iguacu 41%.
How many goals are expected in America RJ vs Nova Iguacu?
The model expects 2.45 goals (America RJ 1.12 · Nova Iguacu 1.33), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in America RJ vs Nova Iguacu?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.