Football · Russia Premier League · 19/10, 18:30
Prediction: Rodina Moscow vs FC Orenburg
Team pages: Rodina Moscow · FC Orenburg
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.28Total
Rodina Moscow1.34
FC Orenburg1.94
1X2
Rodina Moscow
Draw
FC Orenburg
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Rodina Moscow
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
FC Orenburg
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Rodina Moscow
0–1
FC Orenburg
(1 last)
- Rodina Moscow1-4FC Orenburg
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Orenburg (rating 1388 vs 1533).
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Rodina Moscow | FC Orenburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.5 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | – / 3.8 | – / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 5.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rodina Moscow 0–0–1 FC Orenburg
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/26 Russia Cup | Rodina Moscow | 1-4 HT 1-2 | FC Orenburg |
Standings · Russia Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Moscow | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | CSKA Moscow | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Krasnodar | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 13 | 22 |
| 4 | Zenit St Petersburg | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 13 |
| 7 | Baltika Kaliningrad | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 12 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Orenburg | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| 10 | Krylia Sovetov | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 12 |
| 11 | FC Akhmat Grozny | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 11 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| 13 | Rostov | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 11 |
| 14 | Akron Tolyatti | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 9 |
| 15 | Fakel Voronezh | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 6 |
| 16 | Rodina Moscow | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 25 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Rodina Moscow | FC Orenburg |
|---|---|---|
| Rubin Kazan | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Dynamo Makhachkala | 0-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Dinamo Moscow | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Akron Tolyatti | 3-3 D | 2-2 D |
| Zenit St Petersburg | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Rostov | 2-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Spartak Moscow | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 4 L | 2 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Orenburg (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rodina Moscow
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | CSKA Moscow Russia Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/09 | Rubin Kazan Russia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 11/09 | Krylia Sovetov Russia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | Dynamo Makhachkala Russia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Baltika Kaliningrad Russia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 23/08 | Dinamo Moscow Russia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 15/08 | Akron Tolyatti Russia Premier League |
2-0 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 09/08 | Zenit St Petersburg Russia Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 31/07 | Rostov Russia Premier League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Spartak Moscow Russia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
FC Orenburg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Dynamo Makhachkala Russia Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 17/09 | Krasnodar Russia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 12/09 | Dinamo Moscow Russia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | Akron Tolyatti Russia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Spartak Moscow Russia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 10 | D |
| 22/08 | Fakel Voronezh Russia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 14/08 | Lokomotiv Moscow Russia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Rubin Kazan Russia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | Zenit St Petersburg Russia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 26/07 | Rostov Russia Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rodina Moscow vs FC Orenburg?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Orenburg win (50%). Probabilities: Rodina Moscow 25%, draw 24%, FC Orenburg 50%.
How many goals are expected in Rodina Moscow vs FC Orenburg?
The model expects 3.28 goals (Rodina Moscow 1.34 · FC Orenburg 1.94), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Rodina Moscow vs FC Orenburg?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.