Football · Russia Premier League · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: Fakel Voronezh vs Rodina Moscow

Team pages: Fakel Voronezh · Rodina Moscow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Fakel Voronezh1.88

Rodina Moscow1.08

1X2

55% 25% 21%

Fakel Voronezh Draw Rodina Moscow

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Fakel Voronezh 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Rodina Moscow 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Fakel Voronezh 0–4 Rodina Moscow (4 last)

Fakel Voronezh1-3Rodina Moscow
Rodina Moscow2-0Fakel Voronezh
Rodina Moscow2-0Fakel Voronezh
Rodina Moscow2-0Fakel Voronezh

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fakel Voronezh (rating 1462 vs 1397).
H2H favours Rodina Moscow: 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fakel Voronezh	Rodina Moscow
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.7	1 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	– / 4.7	– / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.96

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:17

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.11 → 2.13▲	Pinn 2.13
X	3.26 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.30
2	3.55 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.60

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:44 +32’	2.11	3.26	3.55
19:42 +35’	2.13▲	3.30▲	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fakel Voronezh 0–0–4 Rodina Moscow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/26 Russia Division 1	Fakel Voronezh	1-3 HT 0-3	Rodina Moscow
15/09/25 Russia Division 1	Rodina Moscow	2-0 HT 0-0	Fakel Voronezh
17/02/20 Russia FNL Cup	Rodina Moscow	2-0 HT 1-0	Fakel Voronezh
17/02/20 Russia FNL Cup	Rodina Moscow	2-0 HT 1-0	Fakel Voronezh

Standings · Russia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Moscow	11	8	1	2	18	9	25
2	Zenit St Petersburg	11	8	0	3	25	13	24
3	Spartak Moscow	11	7	2	2	21	8	23
4	CSKA Moscow	11	6	4	1	19	12	22
5	Krasnodar	11	6	4	1	19	13	22
6	Dynamo Makhachkala	11	4	1	6	16	21	13
7	Baltika Kaliningrad	11	3	4	4	14	12	13
8	FC Orenburg	10	2	6	2	11	10	12
9	Rubin Kazan	11	2	6	3	12	16	12
10	Rostov	11	3	3	5	11	17	12
11	Krylia Sovetov	11	2	6	3	15	17	12
12	Lokomotiv Moscow	11	2	5	4	16	14	11
13	FC Akhmat Grozny	11	2	5	4	15	16	11
14	Akron Tolyatti	11	1	6	4	12	20	9
15	Fakel Voronezh	11	1	3	7	8	19	6
16	Rodina Moscow	10	1	2	7	10	25	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fakel Voronezh	Rodina Moscow
Krylia Sovetov	2-1 W	1-2 L
Spartak Moscow	0-1 L	0-3 L
Baltika Kaliningrad	2-2 D	0-3 L
Rostov	1-3 L	2-4 L
Zenit St Petersburg	0-1 L	2-1 W
CSKA Moscow	0-1 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Fakel Voronezh (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fakel Voronezh

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Krylia Sovetov Russia Premier League	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
10/10	Lokomotiv Moscow Russia Premier League	0-2	0-5	12	2	L
16/09	Spartak Moscow Russia Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
12/09	Baltika Kaliningrad Russia Premier League	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
05/09	Rostov Russia Premier League	0-0	1-3	1	4	L
29/08	Zenit St Petersburg Russia Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
22/08	FC Orenburg Russia Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
15/08	CSKA Moscow Russia Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
10/08	FC Akhmat Grozny Russia Premier League	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
02/08	Krasnodar Russia Premier League	0-2	2-3	4	4	L

Rodina Moscow

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	CSKA Moscow Russia Premier League	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
16/09	Rubin Kazan Russia Premier League	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
11/09	Krylia Sovetov Russia Premier League	0-0	1-2	7	6	L
06/09	Dynamo Makhachkala Russia Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
30/08	Baltika Kaliningrad Russia Premier League	0-1	0-3	2	8	L
23/08	Dinamo Moscow Russia Premier League	1-1	1-3	2	6	L
15/08	Akron Tolyatti Russia Premier League	2-0	3-3	1	1	D
09/08	Zenit St Petersburg Russia Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
31/07	Rostov Russia Premier League	1-1	2-4	2	3	L
25/07	Spartak Moscow Russia Premier League	0-1	0-3	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fakel Voronezh vs Rodina Moscow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fakel Voronezh win (55%). Probabilities: Fakel Voronezh 55%, draw 25%, Rodina Moscow 21%.

How many goals are expected in Fakel Voronezh vs Rodina Moscow?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Fakel Voronezh 1.88 · Rodina Moscow 1.08), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fakel Voronezh vs Rodina Moscow?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.