Football · England Championship · 10/10, 13:30

Prediction: Charlton vs Bristol City

Team pages: Charlton · Bristol City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Charlton1.16

Bristol City1.42

1X2

30% 29% 42%

Charlton Draw Bristol City

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Charlton 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Bristol City 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Charlton 1–2–3 Bristol City (6 last)

Charlton1-2Bristol City
Bristol City0-0Charlton
Charlton3-2Bristol City
Bristol City2-1Charlton
Charlton0-1Bristol City
Bristol City1-1Charlton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charlton 1485 · Bristol City 1524

	Charlton	Draw	Bristol City
Our model	30%	29%	42%
Market	30%	29%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bristol City: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charlton	Bristol City
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.4	2.9 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.20

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.14
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.28
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.34 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:03 +9’	3.10	3.20	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:13 +659’	3.14	3.28	2.34

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlton 1–2–3 Bristol City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 England Championship	Charlton	1-2 HT 1-1	Bristol City
16/08/25 England Championship	Bristol City	0-0 HT 0-0	Charlton
26/12/19 England Championship	Charlton	3-2 HT 1-0	Bristol City
23/10/19 England Championship	Bristol City	2-1 HT 0-0	Charlton
06/02/16 England Championship	Charlton	0-1 HT 0-1	Bristol City
26/12/15 England Championship	Bristol City	1-1 HT 1-0	Charlton

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	8	5	2	1	13	6	17
2	West Ham	8	4	3	1	22	11	15
3	Middlesbrough	8	4	3	1	16	12	15
4	Wolverhampton	7	4	2	1	15	10	14
5	West Brom	8	4	2	2	10	8	14
6	QPR	8	3	4	1	10	7	13
7	Stoke	8	4	1	3	13	12	13
8	Bristol City	8	4	1	3	11	12	13
9	Charlton	8	3	3	2	7	10	12
10	Birmingham	8	2	5	1	12	11	11
11	Millwall	8	3	2	3	15	15	11
12	Lincoln City	8	3	2	3	7	8	11
13	Southampton	8	4	2	2	19	10	10
14	Wrexham	8	2	4	2	9	12	10
15	Bolton	8	3	1	4	11	15	10
16	Blackburn	8	2	3	3	12	12	9
17	Norwich	8	3	0	5	16	17	9
18	Sheff Utd	8	2	3	3	9	11	9
19	Portsmouth	7	2	2	3	9	10	8
20	Watford	8	2	2	4	7	10	8
21	Cardiff	8	1	4	3	10	12	7
22	Derby	8	1	2	5	7	14	5
23	Preston	8	1	1	6	8	15	4
24	Burnley	8	0	4	4	9	17	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charlton	Bristol City
Portsmouth	0-0 D	2-1 W
Stoke	0-4 L	2-0 W
Preston	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bristol City (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Charlton

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Cardiff England Championship	1-2	1-3	1	8	L
12/09	Portsmouth England Championship	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
09/09	QPR England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
05/09	Stoke England Championship	0-4	0-4	3	5	L
02/09	West Brom England Championship	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
29/08	Preston England Championship	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
22/08	West Ham England Championship	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
15/08	Derby England Championship	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
02/05	Swansea England Championship	0-0	1-3	4	0	L
25/04	Hull England Championship	1-1	2-1	5	3	W

Bristol City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Watford England Championship	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
15/09	Lincoln City England Championship	0-0	0-1	13	7	L
12/09	Southampton England Championship	0-1	1-4	5	2	L
05/09	Burnley England Championship	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
01/09	Preston England Championship	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
29/08	Portsmouth England Championship	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
22/08	Birmingham England Championship	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
15/08	Millwall England Championship	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
02/05	Stoke England Championship	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
25/04	Birmingham England Championship	0-2	1-2	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charlton vs Bristol City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bristol City win (42%). Probabilities: Charlton 30%, draw 29%, Bristol City 42%.

How many goals are expected in Charlton vs Bristol City?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Charlton 1.16 · Bristol City 1.42), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Charlton vs Bristol City?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.